AeroVironment (AVAV 3.67%) stock took a little tumble today. Five percent, as of late morning. It happens. So it goes.
The forecasts said they’d earn seventy-two cents a share, on sales of four hundred eighty-three-point-nine million dollars. Instead? Sixty-four cents. And four hundred eight million in sales. Not a disaster, exactly. Just… off. Numbers are funny things.
AeroVironment’s Quarter
On the surface, it looks bad. But things are rarely simple. They did manage to grow sales by one hundred forty-three percent year over year. A surge, really. It’s just that surging doesn’t always equal profit. It’s a lesson we all learn, eventually.
The earnings weren’t earnings, not really. Pro forma profits. A little accounting magic. When you look at it the way everyone actually counts, they lost three dollars and fifteen cents a share. A real loss. Not a pretend one.
Year to date, they’re down two hundred forty-one million. And the cash flow? Negative two hundred twenty million. Money, it seems, isn’t growing on the drones.
Is it Time to Land This Stock?
So, sales are up, profits are down. A common story, really. What does it mean for those who own a piece of this company?
They say sales will keep growing. Management points to a book-to-bill ratio of 1.6. More orders than they can currently fill. They’re guiding toward one-point-nine billion in sales for the year. More than double last year. Sounds promising, doesn’t it? Except, of course, that promises are often broken.
There are a couple of catches. First, their forecast is lower than what the analysts expected. A minor detail, perhaps. Second, even with all those sales, they don’t expect to make a profit. They’re still forecasting a loss of at least four-ten a share. Possibly four-forty-four. A slow leak, if you will.
To me, this stock looks like a sell. Not because it’s a terrible company, just because the numbers don’t quite add up. It’s a small tragedy, in the grand scheme of things. But then, aren’t they all?
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2026-03-11 18:13