AbbVie: A Peculiar Prosperity

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AbbVie, you say? A curious entity, indeed. Five years hence, they ask? As if one could predict the whims of the market with the same certainty one predicts the arrival of autumn. Yet, here we are, peering into the fog, armed with balance sheets and a healthy dose of skepticism. It is no longer the simple creature it once was, clinging to the skirts of Humira like a provincial clerk to a departing nobleman. That particular beast, while once providing a substantial portion of the revenue – roughly 37%, a figure that clings to the memory like a persistent cough – is now receding into the past. A good riddance, perhaps, though one never truly trusts a departing source of income.

The Humira cliff is now a distant speck in the rearview mirror, a cautionary tale whispered among analysts. But what lies ahead? Ah, that is the question that keeps the accountants awake at night, and the investment managers reaching for another cup of weak tea. Let us consider the matter with the cold, calculating gaze of a man examining a slightly bruised apple.

A Thirty-Two Billion Rouble Proposition (or Thereabouts)

Skyrizi and Rinvoq. These are the names to murmur, the twin pillars upon which AbbVie intends to build its future. Already, they constitute a rather alarming 45% of the company’s revenue during the first nine months of this year. A concentration of power, one might say. And the numbers continue to swell, like a river after a particularly heavy rain. Skyrizi, in particular, is approaching the heights once scaled by Humira. An impressive 47% year-over-year increase, they boast. One suspects a touch of exaggeration, but who are we to question the pronouncements of the financial scribes?

Analysts, those oracles of the modern age, predict at least thirty-two billion dollars in combined sales by 2030. A tidy sum, to be sure. Enough to keep the shareholders content, and the executives swimming in caviar. This immunology duo, they claim, will anchor AbbVie financially. One hopes they have accounted for the inevitable disruptions – the unforeseen calamities, the rogue asteroids, the sudden outbreaks of fashionable diseases.

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Beyond the Pillars: Rising Stars and Dubious Ventures

But AbbVie is not content to rest upon its laurels. Qulipta and Ubrelvy, therapies for the affliction of headaches, continue to grow, though one suspects the growth is fueled more by clever marketing than by genuine efficacy. And Botox, that venerable elixir of vanity, remains a juggernaut, preserving the youth of the wealthy and the foolish. A lucrative business, to be sure, but one built upon the sands of delusion.

Elahere, a cancer therapy, appears to be a near certainty, a slam dunk, as they say. Vyalev, for Parkinson’s disease, could potentially reach a billion dollars in annual sales. A respectable figure, though one must remember that a billion dollars is merely a fleeting illusion in the grand scheme of things. They speak of regulatory approvals for tavapadon, PVEK, and TrenibotE – names that roll off the tongue like pebbles in a stream. One wonders what arcane rituals are required to secure these approvals, and what favors are exchanged behind closed doors.

Sixty programs in Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials. A veritable army of scientists and researchers, toiling away in their laboratories, chasing the elusive cure. Lutikizumab, etentamig, temab-A – more names, more promises. One hopes they are not merely chasing shadows, or constructing castles in the air.

Bigger, but Not Necessarily Wiser

AbbVie currently ranks as the third-largest healthcare company in the world, with a market cap of around $392 billion. They will not surpass Eli Lilly or Johnson & Johnson, not in our lifetimes. But they will grow, undoubtedly. A reasonable guess? Perhaps 10% average annual gains by 2031. That would bring the total to around $600 billion. A substantial sum, enough to build a small kingdom, or at least a very large mausoleum.

But investors will be rewarded in other ways, of course. AbbVie is a member of the Dividend Kings, a select group of companies that have increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. 54 years, to be precise. A remarkable feat, a testament to their unwavering commitment to… well, to distributing money. One can be confident that they will continue to raise their dividend, making AbbVie even more… kingly. Though whether this “kingliness” translates to genuine value remains to be seen. It is, after all, merely a matter of accounting.

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2026-02-02 11:53