A Quantum Comedy: Two Ventures to Observe From Afar

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Good sirs and madams, let us turn our gaze to the burgeoning, yet curiously opaque, realm of quantum computing. It is a field rife with promise, certainly, but also, I venture to suggest, with a certain… theatricality. Two companies, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum, have lately occupied the stage, drawing the attention – and, alas, the funds – of investors. As a humble observer of these financial dramas, I find myself compelled to offer a word of caution, lest enthusiasm outstrip reason.

Act I: The Case of Rigetti, or the Illusion of Progress

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Rigetti, that ambitious purveyor of full-stack quantum marvels, proclaims itself a pioneer. A bold claim, to be sure. Yet, upon closer inspection, one discovers a business remarkably adept at generating expectations, and less so at generating substantial revenue. It reminds one of a player upon the boards, delivering a stirring monologue while conspicuously lacking in coin.

The company, with a modesty I find almost disarming, has not deemed it necessary to delineate its income streams. However, should one be inclined to speculate, it is likely that the sale of quantum computers constitutes the greater portion of its earnings – a rather meager portion, I might add. Through the first three quarters of the recent year, Rigetti amassed a mere $5.2 million – a sum diminished by 39% compared to the same period the prior year. A most unfortunate decline!

In October, a flurry of announcements promised sales exceeding that entire quarterly revenue. A delightful prospect, one might think. However, the reckoning is delayed. These earnings, like a delayed performance, will not grace the balance sheet until the latter half of the coming year. Thus, when Rigetti presents its quarterly accounts, expect a performance… lacking in the anticipated grandeur. Analysts predict a revenue of $7.6 million, a figure the company is unlikely to achieve. A halving of net losses to $0.03 per share is also in doubt. Such disappointments rarely please the audience.

Prudence, therefore, dictates a cautious approach. Until Rigetti demonstrates a sustained ability to translate promise into profit, it is a venture best observed from a safe distance.

Act II: D-Wave, or the Vanity of Market Capitalization

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D-Wave Quantum, somewhat larger in stature, yet still a modest player in this grand drama, has experienced a surge in sales. A welcome development, certainly. However, even this increase leaves the company with a total revenue of less than $22 million through the first three quarters of the year. A respectable sum, to be sure, but hardly a fortune.

D-Wave proclaims itself a leader in the field, and the improvement in sales suggests a certain momentum. Yet, most discerning observers agree that total revenue for the year will likely fall short of $26 million – and, crucially, will not yield a profit. To support a market capitalization of $9.7 billion on such meager earnings is, shall we say, ambitious. Indeed, Wall Street does not foresee profitability before the year 2030. A long wait for a return on investment!

Like Rigetti, D-Wave appears to be fueled more by speculation than by substance. The stock’s gains, I suspect, are attributable to the fickle whims of momentum. Until D-Wave demonstrates a sustained ability to generate genuine profits, I remain a seller of its shares. A prudent course, I assure you.

Let us, therefore, observe these ventures with a discerning eye, and a healthy dose of skepticism. For in the realm of quantum computing, as in life, appearances can be deceiving.

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2026-01-25 08:32