Superman Box Office Estimates Fall Short: What Went Wrong?

Just as I anticipated, it appears that the earnings from the first weekend of Superman will be approximately between $90 million and $125 million at the box office.

There were wild claims of around $175 million.

Early Tracking Paints a Murky Picture for Superman, Fantastic Four, and Jurassic World

In my analysis of the early projections for “Jurassic World Rebirth,” anticipated to debut with a franchise-low earnings of approximately $115 million to $135 million, it’s worth noting that James Gunn’s “Superman” and Marvel’s “Fantastic Four” (projected figures are still pending) appear strikingly similar or even identical in terms of their initial box office performance.

As a devoted cinephile, I’ve noticed an interesting trend – folks aren’t purchasing their movie tickets in advance as much as they used to. The die-hard fans snap up the early previews and special screenings, but it seems like the first Friday and Saturday showings for most films are left largely empty. This poses a challenge when it comes to predicting a blockbuster opening, since no ticket sales have been recorded yet.

According to additional sources tracking the situation, it appears that the opening weekend for the new Superman film might fall within the range of $125 million to $145 million. However, these predictions seem quite varied.

Strong Brand, Weak Demand

The website additionally references multiple pieces of information, although I suspect this term doesn’t convey much meaning, yet it’s the standard within our field for evaluating such matters.

Superman Tops in Brand Recognition, But Does It Matter?

People often remark that Superman enjoys high brand recognition, as indicated by a score of 30 in “unaided awareness.” This essentially means that when asked about movies they’d like to watch, viewers are able to mention Superman without any prompting.

The observation has been made that the figure surpasses the opening of Top Gun: Maverick ($126.7M), yet there’s some skepticism about its significance: why does this matter?

“Must-See” Numbers Put Superman Behind Recent Superhero Openers

The site argues that the most significant measurement is the initial preference, often referred to as the “must-see” category, which shows if individuals are genuinely prepared to get off the couch.

Compared to other superhero films released post-COVID, such as Thor: Love and Thunder, The Batman, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Superman lags behind in terms of box office earnings (Thor: Love and Thunder – $144.1M, The Batman – $134M, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – $118.4M).

Superman’s First Choice Score Trails Cap 4 and The Batman by a Wide Margin

If you share the same perspective as “first see,” Gunn’s Superman seems to be portrayed quite poorly, even worse than Captain America: Brave New World, which was such a flop at the box office that Disney reported it as a financial loss in their investor report.

In a comparison, “Captain America: Brave New World” demonstrated a significant lead over “Superman,” with its initial preference score climbing 71% higher at the same phase. However, it only raked in $88.8 million during its opening weekend. Conversely, “Superman” lags behind “The Batman” (2022) by 64% in terms of initial interest.

It’s worth pondering whether the significance of this data is questionable, given that The Batman earned almost double the box office revenue of Captain America 4, and had an impressive opening weekend with $134 million.

Superman Still Has a Shot—If Gunn Delivers the Right Movie

Also just as I have said, it seems fans are waiting on reviews before they buy tickets.

Absolutely, as demonstrated by the success of Minecraft, any film could become a blockbuster if it appeals to its audience. Among the three upcoming movies, I’m leaning towards Guardians of the Galaxy director James Gunn’s Superman. The promotional efforts and social media presence have been particularly strong for this movie, and the cast appears likable. The trailer showcases a vibrant, entertaining, and heroic film that seems to be generating more buzz than both John Wick: Chapter 3 and Fast & Furious. For Gunn to ensure its success, he needs to deliver a solid film without overtly pushing his political views.

Release info

On July 11th, the action-packed movie featuring Superman unfolds in cinemas. The cast includes David Corenswet portraying Clark Kent/Superman, Rachel Brosnahan as Lois Lane, and Nicholas Hoult stepping into the role of Lex Luthor. Additionally, new DC characters are introduced through Nathan Fillion, Isabela Merced, Edi Gathegi, and Anthony Carrigan’s performances.

2025-06-20 01:02