Picture this: Lawmakers furiously churning out what UBS drolly calls an “economic bill,” bristling with eternal tax incentives, trade sweeteners, and enough political anxiety to make caffeine jealous. All this, of course, under a deadline tighter than Congress’s collective grip on metaphors.
UBS Reports on the Senate’s Attempts at Legislative Gymnastics (With Extra Twists and Anxiety)
Every week, wide-eyed policy nerds at UBS sit down to scrutinize the legislative circus in D.C., and on June 13, they served up a fresh episode. Think of this as the “behind-the-scenes” footage nobody asked for—a legislative epic they’ve nicknamed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” The bill, having gracefully tripped down the steps of the House, now limps toward the Senate for its extreme makeover.
The Senate Finance Committee is prepping its scissors for some delicate surgery—think less “House of Cards,” more “Extreme Makeover: Policy Edition.” Among rumored tweaks: dialing down the proposed Medicaid cuts (a little compassion, Senate-style), making tax breaks eternal (forever is only five years in House-speak, apparently), and possibly putting the SALT deduction on a diet. UBS notes the Senate’s breakneck speed, which is, by Congressional standards, just above glacial:
The entire push is to hit President Trump’s preferred July 4th finish line. Spoiler: Congress rarely meets deadlines. So, if you want to bet on this, put your money on “late, but probably signed anyway.” 🎆
The legislative “secret sauce” here is budget reconciliation—sort of like playing Monopoly but with new rules every round. No need for cumbersome 60-vote majorities; just a simple nod from half the Senate and you’re golden. Alas, this game has referees—the mighty Senate Parliamentarian—who decides if proposals about AI bans or energy permits make the cut. UBS suspects some flashy provisions will be left on the cutting room floor, like a director shouting, “Cut! Too much plot!”
Meanwhile, on the trade front, there’s been drama with all the suspense of a poorly-scripted Netflix thriller. Good news (if you’re into that?): a court pressed pause on rolling back those exquisite Trump-era tariffs, letting them simmer a bit longer. As for China—America’s favorite frenemy—the two powers have agreed to share rare earth minerals for half a year. It’s like a neighborly swap: you get my rare earths, I get your… slightly fewer export controls.
As UBS dryly observes:
Since no one really knows what rules are in effect (legal limbo, anyone?), the administration hinted, “Hey, maybe we’ll just extend the trade talks.” Because when in doubt, delay! ⏳
Treasury Secretary Bessent also dropped a hint that the July 8th trade deadline may just be a “soft” deadline—a little like promising you’ll start that new diet on Monday, but Monday is always suspiciously a week away. All the while, those sectoral tariffs on semiconductors, lumber, and other essentials continue to march on with the tenacity of background computer programs you’re pretty sure you never installed.
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2025-06-15 06:27