Is the $300K Bitcoin Bet the Best Idea Since Sliced Bread? 🍞💰

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What to know:

  • The $300K bitcoin call option has become the hottest ticket in town for the June 27 expiry, boasting a notional open interest of over $600 million. Yes, you read that right—$600 million! 💸
  • Traders are betting on a bitcoin price rally, even though it’s currently lounging at a mere $110K. Talk about optimism! 🌈
  • The demand for short-duration calls suggests traders are hungry for quick gains, which might just mean we’re nearing a market top. Or a rollercoaster ride—hold on tight! 🎢

Earlier this month, CoinDesk pointed out the surging interest in the Deribit-listed $300,000 bitcoin call option, which has become the go-to bullish play for the all-important June quarter expiry. Who knew gambling could be so sophisticated?

Now, this bet has morphed into the most popular wager for the upcoming quarterly expiry, reinforcing its status as a “lottery ticket” for traders who are convinced bitcoin will skyrocket above $300,000 by the end of next month. Fingers crossed! 🤞

As of now, the $300,000 call option is the belle of the ball for the June 27 expiry, with a notional open interest of over $600 million—up from $484 million just three weeks ago. That’s a lot of dough! According to Deribit, notional open interest represents the dollar value of active contracts. One options contract equals one BTC. Simple math, right?

“The June $300K BTC call options have emerged as the strike with the highest open interest [in June expiry], reflecting aggressive speculative positioning by traders anticipating continued upside,” said Lin Chen, Deribit’s Asia Business Development Head, to CoinDesk. Sounds like a party!

“The combination of record-breaking volumes and concentrated options bets signals elevated market confidence—and the potential for heightened volatility ahead,” Chen added. Buckle up, folks! 🚀

Deribit’s notional options open interest hit a staggering $42.5 billion last week. And if that’s not enough, their newly launched block RFQ (Request for Quote) system is raking in nearly $1 billion in daily volume. Who knew trading could be so lucrative?

A call option gives the buyer the right (but not the obligation) to purchase the underlying asset, BTC, at a set price on or before a specific date. So, if you’re feeling bullish, this is your ticket! 🎟️

The $300,000 call expiring on June 27 is a bet that bitcoin’s price will triple from the current $110,000 to over $300,000 by the end of the first half. Sounds like a tall order, doesn’t it? But hey, it’s been a wild ride lately on Deribit, with traders increasingly eyeing short-term options for quick gains.

Evidence of this can be seen in front-end risk reversals, which measure the demand for calls versus puts over the short term. Spoiler alert: they’re pricier than those with longer maturities. Who knew time could be so valuable?

The chart by Amberdata shows risk reversals are positive across the board, indicating a bias for bullish call options. However, short-duration calls are pricier than their long-duration counterparts. Usually, it’s the other way around. What a twist! 🎭

This trend indicates a growing appetite for quick-paced bullish bets among market participants. It’s like a buffet, and everyone’s going for the dessert! 🍰

“The three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025 is kicking off in Las Vegas today, and speculation is rife about what new bullish announcements will be made at the event,” Chen explained. Let the games begin!

Contrarian signal

The rising demand for short-duration calls could be a contrarian signal, suggesting that speculative excess often appears near market tops, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research. Sounds ominous, doesn’t it?

Thielen noted that the options market is sending out a warning, with seven-day calls trading at a 10% premium to puts. Yikes!

“The options market is flashing a warning: Bitcoin’s skew, which measures the difference in implied volatility between puts and calls, has dropped to nearly -10%, indicating calls are pricing in significantly more volatility than puts,” Thielen said in a note to clients. Sounds like a recipe for chaos!

“This suggests traders are aggressively chasing upside rather than hedging downside risk. In our experience, such extreme skew levels often reflect peak bullish sentiment, a classic contrarian signal,” Thielen added. So, are we at the top? Only time will tell! ⏳

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2025-05-27 13:37