Is Crypto About to Crash or Moon? These 4 Events Have Traders Sweating

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One can never be too sure whether the crypto markets are in a jubilant upswing or quietly plotting their next melodramatic collapse. Over drinks the Americans and Chinese, that classic comedy duo, doggedly discussed trade—an event trumpeted in the press as momentous despite the absence of anything so vulgar as an agreement. Everyone nodded, looked wise, and agreed to reconvene for the next season’s grand farce.

Elsewhere, Donald Trump dusted off his map of lesser-known lands—twenty, to be precise—and began checking his Rolodex for those countries he deemed sufficiently fashionable for early negotiation. Japan and Korea got invitations; Vietnam, too, that perpetual bridesmaid of global trade.

The Federal Reserve, not wanting to ruffle anyone’s feathers, did what British aristocrats have done for centuries: absolutely nothing. They held rates steady, citing macroeconomic uncertainty—in other words, nobody has the faintest idea what the tariffs will do, but there’s an abundance of “waiting and seeing” to be had by all. In the financial markets, such indecision passes for gravitas.

This week’s cage match: inflation figures versus consumer sentiment. Will it be Beulah for bulls or Waterloo for bears? Stay tuned, and hold onto your monocle.

Economic Events, May 12-16: A Pageant of Numbers and Despair 😬

First up, the Consumer Price Index, due Tuesday, stripped of such trivialities as food and energy (Why bother measuring essentials when you can just squint at the numbers?). The CPI, as every schoolboy knows, measures inflation in a way so divorced from reality as to provoke gasps of admiration from creative writers everywhere.

On Thursday, we’ll be treated to the Producer Price Index, a favourite among manufacturers who wish to blame someone else for their costs. The PPI will no doubt be scrutinized before being promptly ignored.

Also on Thursday, retailers will bare their souls—and sales sheets—for April’s buying binge, provided there was such a thing outside of overzealous accounting departments.

Key Events This Week:

1. April CPI Inflation data – Tuesday

2. OPEC, clinging fiercely to relevance – Wednesday

3. April PPI Inflation data – Thursday 🎢

4. Retail sales data. Did anyone shop? – Thursday

5. Fed Chair Powell steps up, says little – Thursday

6. Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment, for what it’s worth – Friday

A veritable banquet of non-events—tune in or tune out, as the spirit moves you.

For anyone hoping Friday might be the week’s denouement, May’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will appear, summarizing the hopes and anxieties of the average American shopper (sample size: people who answer landline phones in 2025). Long-term inflation expectations included, for those who like their despair quantified.

Late-breaking: the White House pronounced “substantial progress” in US-China talks, which is rather like declaring a cricket match riveting once everyone’s asleep. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promises “details” tomorrow—one envisions more handshakes, more stern nodding, and an equal lack of tangible progress.

Crypto Market Outlook: Bulls, Bears, and Charred Wallets 💸

Monday morning brought a slight dip in crypto market capitalization to a mere $3.45 trillion; enough to buy a decent-sized nation or approximately one third of a London townhome. Still, the atmosphere remains positively giddy among enthusiasts—multi-month highs are always cause for another meme.

Bitcoin nearly grazed $105,000 on Sunday, but decided to tarry at $104,000 for fear of heights, leaving us all tantalizingly 4.4% from the mythical all-time high. Our beloved analysts expect consolidation, which is code for “Nobody has any idea what’s next, but please do keep refreshing your portfolio app.”

Ethereum, meanwhile, has been on what can only be described as a Roman candle trajectory—up more than 40% this week, briefly flirting with $2,600 before swooning back to $2,525. Enthusiasts are reportedly searching couches for more coins with which to buy the dip.

As for the altcoin faithful, the weekend’s exuberance gave way to Monday’s ennui—one can only hope next week brings new drama, new memes, and, ideally, something resembling a profit.

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2025-05-12 08:46