Bitcoin’s Latest Surge: Is This the Start of Something Big or Just Another Trap?

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Ah, Bitcoin – the wild, unpredictable beast that we all love (and fear) in equal measure. Recently, its price has leaped above the short-term holders’ realized price of $91,000, and now everyone’s holding their breath. Is it a sign of things to come, or is this just another trap set by the market to trap the eager but naïve? 🎢

Is Bitcoin About to Breakthrough or Double Back? 🤔

In a world where even US President Donald Trump can shake things up, his recent comment about tariffs being “substantially” lower than expected provided a welcome boost to risk-on assets. Both stocks and crypto markets gave a collective cheer, with BTC climbing 5.6% in the last 24 hours. Perhaps there’s hope after all… or is it? 🤷‍♂️

Bitcoin is once again dancing in the low $90,000s, a level it hasn’t seen since March. This has rekindled dreams of a rally that might finally push it past that elusive $100,000 mark. However, caution is urged by CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain, who’s not entirely convinced by this sudden surge. And honestly, can you blame them? 😅

In a post that’s as intriguing as it is alarming, Avocado_onchain shed some light on the behavior of the 1–3 month holder group. These are the folks who usually enter the market during bullish moments and tend to hold through the inevitable price corrections. Spoiler alert: they may be the first to sell off when the market shows signs of exhaustion. They’ve got a knack for it, as seen in this chart:

Notice how the chart highlights the transition from short-term holders to medium-term holders during drawdowns? It’s almost like a well-rehearsed dance – they buy high, they sell higher, and when the music stops, they’re already gone. Can you blame them? 😆

And here’s where it gets a little more interesting: when BTC hits its peak during a strong rally (see the green arrow), this group typically takes their profits. But once the rally starts to show signs of stalling, they make a swift exit. It’s almost like they’re always one step ahead. Maybe they have a crystal ball? 🔮

But wait, there’s more! Avocado_onchain also shared another chart that shows the peaks of past BTC halving cycles, which consistently surpassed the average realized price of these 1–3 month holders. It’s almost like a pattern. Maybe history does repeat itself, or maybe it just likes to tease us. 🤷‍♀️

The analyst even warned that this current market cycle could mimic the infamous double top formation from 2021. In fact, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, it soared far beyond the realized price level. Could that have been the first peak of a potential double top? Rather than rushing to join the rally, it might be a good idea to sit back and enjoy the show. 🍿

“When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, it significantly exceeded this realized price level, suggesting that may have been the first top of a potential double top formation. Hence, rather than chasing the rally, it may be wiser for current holders to adopt a more cautious approach.” 😬

Could Macro Factors Crash the Bitcoin Party? 🍸

But of course, it’s never just about the charts. Oh no, macroeconomic factors like US-China tariff tensions could throw a wrench in the gears of the crypto rally. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset, and anything that makes investors skittish could put the brakes on this momentum. But hey, markets are fickle, and a sudden wave of fresh liquidity could reignite the bull run. Or not. 🤷‍♂️

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Xanrox has raised an eyebrow at BTC’s breakout from a falling wedge pattern, suggesting it could be a whale-driven trap. Are we being lured into the perfect storm before the price takes a dive? We’ll see. Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,754, up 5.6% in the past 24 hours. So, what’s next? Only time will tell. 🕰️

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2025-04-24 10:20