Ah, Bitcoin (BTC), that charming rogue, now finds itself in a rather “unprecedented” tango with the US dollar, as new research suggests a rather posh floor of $75,000. How delightful! 🎩
In a recent tête-à-tête on April 18, our dear network economist Timothy Peterson, with all the flair of a seasoned performer, calculated that BTC/USD might pirouette its way up to a staggering $138,000 in just three months. Quite the spectacle, wouldn’t you say? 💃
BTC Price Probabilities: The Bulls Are in the Limelight! 🐂
Bitcoin is waltzing through some rather peculiar macroeconomic conditions, courtesy of the ongoing US trade war. But fear not, history is a splendid guide to where this price action may lead us next! 📈
For our dear Peterson, the US High Yield Index Effective Yield, currently strutting at over 8%, is the key to this grand performance.
“This has happened 38 times since 2010 (monthly data),” he quipped, with a wink.
“Three months later: Bitcoin was up 71% of the time. The median gain was a delightful +31%. If it went lower, the worst loss was a mere -16%.”
With BTC/USD performance thus skewed to the upside, Peterson has given hope to those eagerly awaiting a rematch of all-time highs from January. How positively thrilling! 🎉
“This likely puts Bitcoin between $75k and $138k within 90 days,” he concluded, with a flourish.
Bitcoin would need to deliver a dazzling 62% gain within that period to achieve such heights. A tall order, but who doesn’t love a good challenge? 🏆
As CryptoMoon reported, Peterson has been a frequent contributor to BTC price forecasts in 2025, with one of his proprietary tools, Lowest Price Forward, giving a staggering 95% odds of a $69,000 floor in March. Quite the crystal ball, I must say! 🔮
Bitcoin DXY Correlation: A Dramatic Flip! 🎭
Turning his attention to the dramatic drop in the US dollar index (DXY), thanks to those cheeky US trade tariffs, he predicted that this unusual positive correlation with BTC would ultimately take a bow and exit stage left.
“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but rather a reflection of the underlying conditions affecting both,” he explained, with a knowing smile.
“Historically inverse, the relationship flipped in 2024 as both assets began responding to the same macro stressors: tightening liquidity, high real rates, and global risk aversion. BTC will decouple and rise when real yields drop and liquidity returns.”
DXY continued to stay below the key 100 mark on April 18, per data from CryptoMoon Markets Pro and TradingView, reflecting some of its lowest levels in the past three years. A rather dismal performance, wouldn’t you agree? 😏
Earlier, separate analysis nonetheless saw the potential for Bitcoin to directly benefit from dollar weakness, reminiscent of the early innings of the bull run in 2023. How nostalgic! 🕰️
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2025-04-19 16:28