RECESSION RED ALERT: $2.85 TRILLION WIPED OUT – 49% Chance of US Economic Collapse

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Wall Street Bleeds $2.85T as Polymarket Degens Bet on Recession, Now a 49% Probability

Investors on Polymarket are placing significant bets on a contract that estimates the possibility of an American economic recession by 2025. Following President Donald Trump’s contentious tariff policy announcement, the likelihood suggested by market activity has almost doubled to around 50%.

Tariffs, Tumbles and Trades

On April 2, 2025, President Trump bitcoin.com/trumps-tariffs-target-global-cheating-as-btc-dips-and-stocks-slide-after-hours/”>declared the implementation of “Liberation Day” tariffs, enacting a sweeping 10% duty on all imported goods effective April 5, accompanied by countervailing tariffs targeting nearly 90 trading partners – including China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. While the administration framed these measures as necessary to correct trade imbalances and combat unfair practices, economists immediately warned of potential shockwaves through the global economic system.

The following day, April 3, financial markets reeled as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,630 points in its worst single-day performance in years. The S&P 500 mirrored this distress with its most severe decline since the pandemic-induced volatility of 2020, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a parallel rout of similar magnitude. The cryptocurrency market wasn’t spared, with the broader digital asset sector losing 5.21% of its value and bitcoin ( BTC) specifically shedding 6.7% against the dollar.

Polymarket’s prediction market now shows heightened probability of a recession, with $1.1 million wagered on the outcome. The likelihood stood at a modest 39% on March 31, then leaped to 49% following Wednesday’s presidential announcement. While experiencing marginal fluctuations earlier today, the probability remained firmly at 49% as of 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday.

Discussions under the contract’s comments section have turned into a battleground for political jabs, as critics aim their criticisms at Trump supporters due to economic concerns. One witty commenter quipped, “Don’t you remember when Kamala Yessers were ridiculed here for predicting that Trump would tank the economy? Who’s laughing now?” This remark encapsulates the tense atmosphere. Today, the U.S. stock market lost a shocking $2.85 trillion in value, with the S&P 500 taking the brunt of this financial storm.

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2025-04-04 00:30