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The anxieties are, naturally, focused on the software trade, where the machines threaten to render perfectly competent men redundant. But Citrini, with a flair for the dramatic, extends the doom to encompass nearly everything. Their scenario – a sort of automated apocalypse – involves unemployment cresting ten percent, the S&P 500 shedding nearly forty percent of its value. A thoroughly unpleasant prospect, though one suspects the truly wealthy will remain largely unaffected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite – those restless indicators of national prosperity – had indeed reached heights previously unseen. These ascents, however, are often more a reflection of collective optimism and speculative fervor than a testament to any single policy. To attribute such gains solely to tariffs is akin to claiming that a single brushstroke defines a masterpiece. It is a narrowing of vision, a disregard for the myriad influences that shape the course of economic events.

The earnings report is due Thursday, and honestly, I’m bracing myself. It’s like waiting for the results of a particularly disastrous online shopping spree. You know it’s not going to be pretty, but you peek anyway. The shares are down, significantly – over 33% in the last year, and a depressing 11% so far this year. But, and it’s a big ‘but’, there’s a tiny sliver of hope. Or, at least, that’s what I’m telling myself to justify spending another hour researching this.

Costco’s operational strategy centers on a low-markup, high-volume approach, prioritizing membership revenue as the primary driver of profitability. This model is predicated on the assumption that a robust membership base will consistently generate revenue, justifying the comparatively narrow margins on individual product sales. Recent data confirms the efficacy of this strategy. First-quarter fiscal year 2026 membership figures increased by 5% year-over-year, reaching 146 million, with executive memberships – commanding a higher annual fee – demonstrating an even more substantial growth rate of 9%. This translated to a 14% increase in membership income, a noteworthy contribution to overall profitability.

Let’s be honest, the fourth quarter wasn’t exactly a triumph. Gross profit per retail unit dipped a bit – from $6,916 to $6,562. Which, when you think about it, is still a substantial amount of money for a used car. It’s enough to buy a very nice collection of antique teapots, for instance. Adjusted EBITDA was a little light of expectations. But here’s where things get interesting. They haven’t offered much in the way of specific guidance for the year ahead. A bit vague, perhaps. They’re expecting growth, naturally. Everyone always expects growth. But they’re hedging their bets with a lot of “assuming the environment remains stable” language. Which, in the world of economics, is roughly equivalent to saying, “If pigs might fly…”

However, amidst this corporate ballet, a rather more interesting development has been unfolding. A quiet little triumph, if you will. Something to do with advertising. Yes, advertising. And, rather surprisingly, it appears to be… flourishing. Does this mean, with a thousand dollars to spare, one might consider a flutter on the shares? One is always terribly cautious, naturally.

Indeed, were this undertaking a separate entity, it could, with a little management, command a valuation approaching one hundred billion dollars. A prospect which, naturally, does not escape the attention of those with a vested interest.