Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Surprise – $100M Opening?

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Sunday update:

Disney predicts that the opening weekend earnings for “Captain America: Brave New World” will be approximately $100 million in the U.S., with worldwide openings potentially reaching around $192.4 million. Much like Friday, Saturday showed a surge and outperformed predictions, earning roughly $27.5 million.

Over the Presidents Day weekend, “Brave New World” had the fourth highest box office earnings, trailing behind the four biggest earners in the MCU – “Black Panther” with a whopping $242 million, “Deadpool” at $152 million, and the latest release “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” with $120 million.

On various social media platforms, multiple fans have expressed curiosity as to why Captain 4 performed so well. My personal opinion is that it’s due to the audience yearning to form their own opinions about the movie. Although many responses skew towards the negative, there are enthusiasts (including myself) who genuinely enjoyed Captain America: Brave New World. The next two weeks will serve as a significant test of its popularity.

Saturday Morning update:

The estimates for “Captain America: Brave New World” have risen, suggesting it might open with over $100 million. As I previously mentioned, Deadline has published an article stating that the film could potentially earn “$100M+ In 4-Days,” implying that “Brave New World” may exceed expectations significantly.

Latest estimates

The projected box office earnings for the first few days have been revised upward, now estimated at around $40 million from a previous prediction of $39 million. The new estimates suggest the four-day total could range between $95 million and $109 million, an increase compared to yesterday’s estimate of $90 million. Disney is estimating earnings within the range of $90 million to $96 million but won’t officially claim $100 million until they receive actual figures. (For more details on Friday and Thursday reports, see below.)

Don’t fall for the spin

Intriguingly, Deadline is drawing parallels between Brave New World’s box office performance and that of Guardians of the Galaxy from 2014, which was released eleven years prior. This seems like an attempt by Deadline to make it seem as if Brave New World is outperforming these two films, creating a sense of urgency (FOMO – Fear Of Missing Out) to encourage viewers to rush to the theaters to see it. However, when adjusted for inflation, there’s no real comparison to be made. Guardians of the Galaxy’s opening Friday grossed over $50 million in today’s dollars, and its 3-day opening was a substantial $126.54 million.

RELATED:New Fantastic Four IMAX Teaser Plays Before Cap 4

Previous from Friday 2/14/2025:

In my humble opinion, the box office earnings for “Captain America: Brave New World” have fallen short of initial projections. The revised estimates now suggest a potential 4-day opening of over $90 million, a decrease from the previous estimate of $95+ million, and even lower than the earlier prediction of $94+ million. If Friday’s earnings, coupled with Thursday’s $12M, are any indication, we’re looking at a 3-day take of around $82M-$84M.

Additionally, Deadline seems to stretch the truth once more by highlighting that the Friday box office for Captain America: Brave New World surpassed Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s $36.9M opening. However, they neglect to mention an important detail – when adjusted for inflation, the true opening figure for Captain America: The Winter Soldier was approximately $49.52M. This is a substantial disparity between the two movies, with Captain America: The Winter Soldier having been released in 2014.

Two years ago, the movie “Quantumania” opened on the same weekend; its first Friday grossed approximately $46.4 million. At least, it appears that “Brave New World” is now slightly behind “Quantumania” by about 15%, indicating that it’s starting to catch up as of its Friday showing (for more details, refer to the report from Thursday). It’s worth noting that while the three-day estimates have increased, the four-day estimates have decreased. This could mean that “Deadline” might be underestimating the actual figures to create a headline claiming that “Brave New World” surpasses expectations, so keep an eye out for any potential adjustments in their predictions.

It appears that “Brave New World” might gain momentum on Saturday, potentially carrying it through the weekend and even hitting a $100M mark. Word-of-mouth is spreading, suggesting fans are eager to see it for themselves. However, reactions have been mixed, with a slightly negative tilt. So, keep your expectations in check, grab some popcorn, and you should have an enjoyable experience.

RELATED:Captain America: Brave New World Review: Fun Superhero Flick

Previous report about Thursday:

In a departure from expectations, “Captain America: Brave New World” raked in approximately $12 million during its Thursday box office previews, which is considered relatively low compared to “Quantumania’s” earnings of $17.5 million from the year 2023.

Despite the fact that reports indicate that “Brave New World” has been selling tickets about 10%-15% less than “Quantumania,” one would expect its Thursday earnings to be approximately $15-$16 million. However, it appears that “Brave New World” is actually falling behind “Quantumania” by more than 30%.

NO comparison to Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Allow me to clarify: There’s absolutely no competition with the 2014 film, Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It stands head and shoulders above it, raking in significantly more money at the box office. Some online outlets, such as Deadline, have been attempting to present Brave New World in a more favorable light compared to Winter Soldier. However, they’re missing a crucial point: they should factor in inflation when reporting their figures. (A chuckle for good measure: LOL)

11 years have passed since the release of “Captain America: The Winter Soldier”. Adjusting for inflation, the Thursday previews ($10.2M) from that film would equate to approximately $13.69 million in today’s dollars. Similarly, its 3-day opening ($95M) when adjusted for inflation brings us to a staggering $127.48 million in modern terms.

Latest estimates

In simpler terms, the movie Brave New World is kicking off with a long holiday weekend stretching over four days. It’s hoping to earn around $95 million in total. At present, predictions suggest it might only manage an $80 million three-day opening and a $94 million four-day opening.

It’s intriguing to find out if “Brave New World” will receive positive feedback during its premiere on Friday and the following day, Saturday. Word-of-mouth is spreading, but so far, responses from fans seem to lean towards the negative. Yet, as I mentioned in my review, it’s still possible to appreciate “Brave New World” as a lighthearted superhero film with plenty of popcorn appeal.

Unfortunately, it seems that the deadline for social media analytics has some disappointing news. They indicate that “Captain America: Brave New World” is performing average in comparison to other superhero films, and it’s not even close to the popularity of movies like “Deadpool” or “Wolverine.” In fact, it’s being overshadowed by “Thor: Love and Thunder,” which might be a cause for concern.

Crushed by the critics

Brave New World” is receiving mostly negative reviews from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, with a current rating of 53%. Similarly, its audience score for a superhero film is relatively low at 79%.

The film, while enjoyable for me (you can find my review here, where I rated it 7 out of 10), hasn’t satisfied many fans due to Mackie being cast as Captain America. Given the trials and tribulations the MCU has subjected fans to over the past five years, their dissatisfaction is understandable. Just like they did with The Marvels, fans are expressing their discontent through their wallets.

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2025-02-17 02:02