Captain America: Brave New World Surprises All with Potential $100M Opening!

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Saturday Morning update:

According to recent estimates, it appears that “Captain America: Brave New World” has the potential to open with earnings exceeding $100 million. As I previously mentioned, Deadline has published an article suggesting that this film could earn “$100M+ In 4-Days,” implying that it might surpass expectations significantly.

Latest estimates

The projected box office earnings for this weekend have been increased, now estimated to be around $40 million from an earlier prediction of $39 million. Estimates suggest that the total four-day earnings could range between $95 million and $109 million, an increase compared to just $90 million predicted less than a day ago. Disney is estimating earnings between $90 million and $96 million, but they won’t confirm reaching the $100 million mark until they have the actual figures. (For more details, check out the Friday and Thursday reports.)

Don’t fall for the spin

Remarkably, even Deadline seems to be drawing parallels between Brave New World’s box office performance and that of Guardians of the Galaxy from 2014 – a film that came out a full decade ago! Much like their previous comparisons with Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Deadline is essentially playing a clever trick on us, attempting to make it seem as though Brave New World is surpassing these two blockbusters. This tactic is designed to instill a sense of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), compelling us to rush to theaters to catch it. However, when you factor in inflation, there’s no real comparison – Guardians of the Galaxy’s first Friday earnings would translate to over $50 million in today’s dollars, and its 3-day opening was a staggering $126.54M!

Previous from Friday 2/14/2025:

Brave New World” at the box office are falling short of initial predictions. The new projections suggest a potential 4-day opening of $90 million or more, which is less than the earlier estimates of $95 million and then $94 million. The three-day earnings are estimated to be between $82 million and $84 million, with Friday’s revenue expected to add around $39 million to that total, along with Thursday’s $12 million earnings.

Moreover, Deadline seems to overstate its facts by boasting about how Captain America: Brave New World outperformed Captain America: The Winter Soldier at the Friday box office, with a gross of $36.9M compared to $36.9M. However, it’s important to note that when adjusted for inflation, the true earnings for Captain America: The Winter Soldier would be approximately $49.52M. This is quite a substantial disparity. It’s worth mentioning that Captain America: The Winter Soldier was initially released in 2014.

Two years ago, Quantumania opened on the same weekend; its first Friday earned $46.4 million. At least Brave New World is currently trailing Quantumania by approximately 15%, indicating it’s making progress. Interestingly, while the three-day estimates increased, the four-day decreased. Deadline might be projecting a lower number than actuals to create a headline stating that Brave New World outperforms, so keep an eye out for potential adjustments in the numbers.

It looks like “Brave New World” might have gained some momentum on Friday, potentially carrying over into Saturday and the long weekend. There’s a chance it could gross $100M, but keep in mind that word-of-mouth is mixed, leaning more towards negative reactions. So, go in with low expectations, grab some popcorn, and you should have a decent time!

Previous report about Thursday:

The opening night previews for Captain America: Brave New World have earned approximately $12 million at the box office, which seems relatively low compared to Quantumania’s $17.5 million from 2023.

Despite the fact that reports indicate “Brave New World” has been selling tickets about 10% to 15% less than “Quantumania,” this suggests that “Brave New World”‘s Thursday earnings should have been approximately $15-$16 million. However, it appears that “Brave New World” is falling significantly behind “Quantumania,” with a difference of over 30%.

NO comparison to Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Let’s set the record straight: There is absolutely no contest between the 2014 film, “Captain America: The Winter Soldier,” and any other movie. In fact, it’s a superior production that has raked in significantly more earnings. Some online outlets like Deadline are attempting to exaggerate the success of “Brave New World” at the expense of “Winter Soldier.” However, they seem to overlook the impact of inflation when reporting their figures (quite amusing, really).

11 years have passed since I first watched “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” hit the big screen, and when you adjust for inflation, that Thursday’s preview earnings of $10.2 million would equate to a staggering $13.69 million in today’s currency. Incredibly, its 3-day opening weekend, which was $95 million back then, would be the equivalent of an impressive $127.48 million in modern dollars!

Latest estimates

In simpler terms, the movie “Brave New World” is set to debut with a long weekend that lasts for four days, and if things go well, it might earn around $95 million. At the moment, predictions suggest a lower 3-day opening of approximately $80 million, while a 4-day opening could reach up to $94 million.

It’s intriguing to find out if the film will perform well on Friday and Saturday as word-of-mouth buzz is growing. While many fans’ reactions seem to lean towards the negative, as I mentioned in my review, I still believe you can appreciate Brave New World as a fun, action-packed movie experience.

Unfortunately, it appears that social media analytics indicate that the quality of these analytics isn’t great, and “Captain America: Brave New World” is currently averaging in terms of performance for a superhero movie. It doesn’t come close to matching the success of films like “Deadpool” or “Wolverine,” and even lags behind “Thor: Love and Thunder.” (Oh dear.)

Crushed by the critics

The film “Captain America: Brave New World” is currently receiving mixed reviews from critics on Rotten Tomatoes, with a score of 53%. Interestingly, although its critical reception isn’t impressive, it still manages to garner an audience score of 79%, which is relatively low compared to other superhero movies.

The film isn’t flawless; I enjoyed it (you can find my review here, and I rate it 7/10), but many devoted fans aren’t pleased that Mackie is Captain America. Given the trials Disney and the MCU have subjected them to over the past five years of content, I understand their discontent. Just as they did with The Marvels, fans are expressing their dissatisfaction through their wallets.

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2025-02-15 20:31