Tesla’s Circuitous Route

Conventional analysis focuses, predictably, on the volume of electric vehicles leaving the factory floor. This is, of course, the visible manifestation of activity, the outward sign of a machine in motion. But to fixate on this is to mistake the shadow for the substance. The true valuation, the one that justifies the current multiple of free cash flow, rests not on what Tesla is today, but on the promise of what it might become. This future, it appears, is increasingly contingent on the successful implementation of a transportation network predicated on autonomous operation, and beyond that, on the eventual emergence of the ‘Optimus’ robots – a project whose practical implications remain shrouded in a fog of optimistic projections.






