Grail: A Statistical Improbability

The source of this minor gravitational anomaly? Disappointing results from a trial of Galleri, a test designed to detect early-stage cancers. The logic is sound, in a terrifyingly clinical sort of way: find the bad stuff early, treat it, and avoid the whole unpleasantness of late-stage diagnosis. It’s a bit like trying to prevent a house fire by repeatedly poking at anything that even looks flammable. It’s proactive, certainly. (And likely to result in a lot of singed eyebrows.) The trial involved a sample size of 142,000 individuals, a number so large it’s difficult to comprehend without resorting to analogies involving galaxies and slightly disgruntled amoebas.






