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Recent observations suggest a renewed interest in those entities designated ‘small caps.’ These are not, of course, insignificant. They are merely… less imposing. For a time, they were dismissed as peripheral, their potential obscured by the brilliance of their larger counterparts. Yet, it is in the shadows, in the less-illuminated corners of the market, that certain anomalies begin to emerge. One such anomaly is the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO 0.06%), a fund that, according to the cryptic pronouncements of certain analysts, may offer a return of approximately 25% within the coming cycle.

It’s a curious thing, this business of leadership. A company climbs to the top of its hill, and immediately, others begin to circle, seeking to dislodge it. It’s a natural order, this struggle for dominance. And the very success that brought a company to prominence often invites new challenges, new competitors, and a constant need to prove itself anew. A man doesn’t enjoy the sun without casting a shadow, and a powerful company invites the same.

Which brings us to Nvidia. The name sounds like a villain from a particularly obscure Bond film, but it’s a semiconductor company. And a remarkably successful one, at that. Its stock has, rather astonishingly, increased over 1,150% since the beginning of 2023. A figure that makes you question the very fabric of reality, frankly. It’s been a bit quieter recently, admittedly, but I suspect that’s about to change. I’m anticipating a rather substantial earnings report on February 25th, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock took off afterward. It’s a bit like watching a coiled spring, isn’t it?

Analysts, those individuals who bravely attempt to predict the future based on the past (a practice roughly equivalent to navigating by looking in the rearview mirror), anticipated earnings of $0.39 per share on sales of $1.15 billion. Copart, however, managed $0.36 per share on $1.12 billion. A difference, admittedly, that wouldn’t fund a particularly lavish interstellar vacation, but enough to trigger a ripple of disappointment among those who deal in such things.

Shares, dedicated to the manufacture of aerial instruments for purposes vaguely defined as “military,” initially climbed, achieving a peak that now feels less like growth and more like a temporary suspension in the inevitable descent. By 10:45 a.m. ET, the elevation had largely dissipated, leaving a modest 2.1% gain – a remainder, perhaps, of the energy expended in the initial, futile ascent.

Both companies are, shall we say, experiencing a bit of gravity. Netflix is down about 17% this year, which feels… dramatic. Meta’s closer to flat, which is either reassuring or just means they’re better at masking the inevitable. Everyone’s looking for a bargain, I suppose, but sometimes the cheapest option ends up costing you more in therapy.

Because 2026? It’s been surprisingly…un-techy. Energy, materials, and industrials are actually beating tech to the punch. I know, I almost didn’t believe it myself. Here’s the breakdown, because numbers are less…subjective than, say, my life choices:

It appears that Braze now constitutes a rather hefty 17.98% of Battery Management Corp.’s 13F AUM. A considerable slice of the pie, wouldn’t you agree? One pictures the portfolio manager, a chap named Featherstonehaugh, perhaps, surveying his holdings with a slightly anxious expression. The top holdings, for those keeping score, are as follows: TTAN leading the charge at $351.44 million, followed by KDK at $124.01 million, then our friend Braze at $111.95 million. CXM and CSBR bring up the rear, but with considerably less fanfare.

The narrative is, “Oh, AI needs power, Bloom has power, therefore Bloom is good.” It’s circular logic, really. And everyone’s buying into it. It’s like when people started paying extra for bottled water. Bottled water! We had perfectly good tap water. But no, suddenly it’s a premium product. This feels… similar.

We’re supposed to believe that Tilray Brands (TLRY 0.76%) and Canopy Growth (CGC +2.14%) are going to make someone rich? It’s insulting, frankly. Like they’re going to magically fix everything. I mean, they’re companies. They sell… stuff. And now we’re attaching dreams to them. It’s just… a lot.