Bitcoin’s Path to $100,000: Waning Short-Term Holder Confidence Signals Reversal

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Despite Bitcoin‘s numerous efforts to establish $100,000 as a stable support point over the last month and a half, it has consistently faltered. Yet, current market indicators hint that this situation might shift in the near future.

A significant decrease in transactions and changes in investor attitudes create an attractive scenario for the movement of the cryptocurrency’s value.

Bitcoin Investors Are Getting Tired Of Selling

The current price of Bitcoin is about 7% higher than the average purchase price for recent buyers, which suggests a change in market conditions. This increase suggests that newer investors are becoming more confident, but if the price doesn’t stay above this level, it could be a sign of decreasing enthusiasm, often followed by broader market adjustments.

As an analyst, I find it crucial that Bitcoin maintains its current levels above the cost basis for short-term holders (STH). A drop below this threshold might indicate uncertainty among these investors, potentially signaling a potential downturn. Conversely, staying above this level could boost confidence and strengthen the bullish outlook in the market, suggesting continued growth.

The strength of macro momentum signals suggests that Bitcoin may be on the path to recovery. The level of realized profits has dipped to its lowest point in three months, indicating a decrease in the urge to sell. This reduced trading activity implies that investors are opting to keep their holdings instead of cashing out, suggesting a weakening of bearish feelings.

A decrease in actual earnings offers Bitcoin a chance to rebuild its pace. As there are less sellers active, buying interest might become more dominant, potentially leading to a prolonged recovery. This change of direction could provide Bitcoin the space it requires to aim for significant resistance points.

BTC Price Prediction: Boosting Through The Barrier

At present, Bitcoin is being traded at approximately $94,422, slightly below the significant resistance level of $95,668. This last obstacle needs to be surpassed for Bitcoin to target the $100,000 milestone. If this resistance is broken, it could ignite fresh bullish energy, moving Bitcoin nearer to reaching this psychologically important price point.

Based on current trends, there’s strong evidence pointing towards an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin. Breaking above $95,668 would pave the way for continued growth. If this momentum persists, Bitcoin could potentially exceed $100,000, establishing a new milestone in its price trend.

If Bitcoin doesn’t manage to exceed $95,668, there might be a reversal instead. It could retest its support at $93,625, and if it falls below this point, the price may continue to drop to $92,005. This downward trend would cast doubt on the bullish prediction and postpone any potential recovery, creating an atmosphere of confusion in the market.

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2025-01-12 14:25