$2.27 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Set to Expire: Price Impact

Today, approximately $2.27 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are due to expire in the cryptocurrency market. This event might cause temporary price fluctuations and potentially affect traders’ earnings.

As a researcher delving into the realm of digital assets, I’ve discovered that Bitcoin (BTC) options dominate the market with a staggering $1.81 billion, whereas Ethereum (ETH) options follow closely behind with a value of approximately $459 million.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Brace For Volatility

Today, as per Deribit’s data, approximately 19,364 Bitcoin options are set to expire, which is slightly fewer than the number that expired at the start of the year (19,885). Last week saw a large number of these Bitcoin contracts being liquidated. The options due for expiration today have a put-to-call ratio of 0.65 and a potential maximum loss point of $97,000.

As a crypto investor, I’ve noticed that despite Bitcoin, the trailblazing cryptocurrency, continuing its slide and moving further away from the $100,000 mark, the put-to-call ratio suggests a predominantly optimistic outlook. This means that investors are more inclined to buy call options (betting on an increase) rather than put options (betting on a decrease), indicating a bullish sentiment overall in the crypto market.

Today marks the expiration of approximately 141,185 Ethereum options, which was initially 205,724 in early January 2025. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.48, with a significant level of $3,450 identified as the maximum point of potential impact. These expirations could potentially sway Ethereum’s short-term price trend.

Approaching 8:00 UTC today, it’s anticipated that the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum will get close to their peak sensitivity levels (maximum pain points). As per BeInCrypto’s latest data, Bitcoin is currently being traded at around $93,792, while Ethereum is being bought and sold at approximately $3,258.

This implies that prices could potentially increase since large investors (often referred to as ‘smart money’) may be trying to push them towards the point where the maximum number of options, both call and put, will expire without any value – a level known as “max pain.

The potential strain on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) prices may alleviate following 08:00 UTC on Friday due to Deribit contract settlements. Nevertheless, the massive size of these expirations might continue causing increased volatility within the cryptocurrency markets.

“Is it a breakout or another consolidation,” Deribit posed in a post on X (Twitter).

Currently, there’s disagreement among analysts about where Bitcoin’s price will head next. Some anticipate it to rise further, while others predict a drop if the support at $92,000 gives way. Meanwhile, Glassnode suggests that the short-term demand for Bitcoin might be decreasing in the market.

The current trend in short-term Bitcoin demand appears to be weakening further. A significant indicator of this is the decrease in Hot Capital, which has dropped by approximately two-thirds since its peak on December 12, going from a staggering $96.2 billion to just $32.0 billion as reported by Glassnode.

In simpler terms, the high temperature of this capital measurement usually reflects quick buying and selling actions and market fluidity. A decrease suggests a significant drop in speculative investments. Previously active traders, dealing with Bitcoin, seem to have retreated, suggesting decreasing confidence or enthusiasm for short-term trading chances. With less money being actively traded, the overall liquidity of Bitcoin might be declining.

1) Larger transactions might find it harder to take place without affecting prices, which could increase market turbulence. A drop of such scale, from $96.2 billion to $32 billion, suggests a widespread negative outlook. Factors such as economic instability on a global scale, strict monetary policies, or regulatory changes could be pushing short-term traders away temporarily.

A decrease in active investment funds might suggest that traders are choosing to stay out of the market until a more defined trend emerges. This potential reduction in demand could make it challenging for Bitcoin’s value to hold steady or surge from its current prices. If there’s no influx of new capital or increased activity, the pressure on prices to fall could grow stronger.

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2025-01-10 09:47