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The question, naturally, is whether this presents a buying opportunity. Or, as I rather suspect, a rather elegant trap for the unwary.

For sixteen consecutive years, Ares Capital has maintained a dividend, either stable or, dare we say, growing. In a world where promises are as fleeting as digital sprites, this is akin to discovering a dragon who reliably pays its taxes. It suggests a certain… competence. A solid position, indeed, for continuing to distribute wealth, or, as the alchemists call it, ‘making money from money’.

The stock did rather well for most of 2025, but then it went absolutely bonkers in November, shooting up like a startled jackrabbit. They reported a 26% jump in revenue and a 72% boost in gross profit. Impressive, perhaps, but numbers can be awfully misleading, like a magician’s trick. They also ended the year with a tidy pile of cash – $1.3 billion, they say – and a backlog of orders worth $22.5 billion. That’s almost ten times their yearly earnings. A mountain of promises, if you ask me, and mountains are awfully good at crumbling.

The peak, reached on January 28th, now appears a distant, almost illusory, landmark. The stock, having briefly touched $132 per share, has since receded, a retreat that mirrors, with unnerving accuracy, the fortunes of the very commodities it extracts. The process, one suspects, is not driven by logic, but by a sort of inertial drift, a consequence of forces operating beyond the scope of rational assessment.

The crude, that dark and volatile elixir, has stirred from its slumber. Both WTI and Brent, those benchmarks of global commerce, experienced a renaissance in January, soaring by 14% and 16% respectively. A most welcome turn of events for those who derive their livelihood from its extraction, refinement, and sale. It marks the end of a six-month drought for crude, and the beginning, perhaps, of a renewed era of prosperity… or, at least, a temporary reprieve from the sting of declining fortunes.

Over the past three years, the stock has doubled, a fact that feels less like a cause for celebration and more like a belated correction. Ford, meanwhile, has… remained. A single percent gain. The broader market, naturally, did better. Sixty-eight percent. One wonders if the market, like a fickle acquaintance, simply prefers a more animated companion.

They had this whole thing happen – Fukushima, right? Uranium prices plummeted. Naturally. Then everyone’s shutting down mines. Sensible, I guess. Except then nobody told the uranium! It just… sat there. And now, suddenly, everyone needs power for these cloud things and AI. AI! Like that solves anything. And now it’s a crisis. A crisis because they shut down the mines. It’s just… predictable. It’s always something.

Apple, you see, isn’t simply selling devices. It’s cultivated an ecosystem, a connected world where one purchase tends another. It’s a modern take on the family farm, where loyalty isn’t bought with discounts, but grown from a shared experience. The iPhone 17, a smooth stone in the hand, has moved well, driven by those willing to pay a little more for the tools that matter. They say supply constrained the numbers. That’s often the case when something is truly wanted.

Yet, 2026… this year holds a certain weight, a possibility. If the currents align, if the winds of circumstance favor the vessel, then perhaps that elusive number might finally be breached. But the ocean is vast, and the storms are unpredictable. Let us consider, then, what must occur for this coin to double in value, to finally claim its place among the higher orders of digital worth.