As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for spotting trends and navigating market volatility, I find myself both excited and cautiously optimistic about the current state of Bitcoin. Having weathered numerous market cycles since my early days mining Bitcoin in a makeshift setup from my college dorm room, I can confidently say that this bull run feels different.
Currently, at 9:50 a.m. Universal Time Coordinated (UTC) on December 16, Monday, Bitcoin is being exchanged at approximately $104,800, marking a 2.6% increase over the preceding 24 hours. Earlier this morning, Bitcoin attained its record high of $106,533 at around 12:35 a.m. UTC, demonstrating robust bullish sentiments in the market as everyone waits for an anticipated announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday.
2024 saw an increasing positive outlook towards the cryptocurrency market, with this bullish trend starting on January 10, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) endorsed the first Bitcoin ETFs that trade in the spot market. A few months later, Ethereum ETFs were also approved by the SEC, strengthening the optimism within the sector. Nevertheless, there was ongoing uncertainty regarding regulatory guidelines for alternative coins such as Solana and Cardano until the November 5th U.S. presidential election, when Donald Trump secured victory. This win instilled faith in a more favorable regulatory climate.
Trump’s election win sparked an enormous surge in the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin, which was $68,500 on November 4, has soared approximately 52% to its current value. This upward trend can be attributed to Trump’s campaign promises, particularly his commitment at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, where he declared himself the “crypto president.” He pledged to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his inauguration day, create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and advocate for cryptocurrency development within the U.S.
Since his victory, Trump has also named several pro-crypto individuals to key positions:
- David Sachs: Venture capitalist and former PayPal COO, appointed as the White House’s Crypto and AI Czar.
- Scott Besant: Selected as Treasury Secretary.
- Paul Atkins: Nominated as the new SEC Chair.
The upcoming FOMC meeting slated for December 17th and 18th could significantly impact Bitcoin’s short-term direction, as there is a strong likelihood (97.1%) that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will announce a quarter point reduction in interest rates. This announcement will be made public via a press release at 2 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, with Powell himself holding a press conference at 2:30 p.m. the same day.
Historically, Bitcoin has a tendency to increase in value during December. This recurring upward trend is often humorously called the “Santa Claus rally” by those within the crypto community.
Although there’s a generally positive vibe among market participants, some continue to express apprehension. There’s a lingering worry that Powell might adopt a firm stance during his upcoming conference, potentially indicating a more conservative approach to monetary policy relaxation in 2025, due to ongoing inflation concerns.
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2024-12-16 13:41