As a seasoned researcher with over a decade of experience tracking the cryptocurrency market, I must say that the current state of Bitcoin is intriguing. While the price hitting $100,000 for the first time was certainly an exciting milestone, the ADX reading of 15.8 suggests that the uptrend may not be as robust as some might expect.
On December 4th, for the first time ever, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $100,000 mark and has seen a 128% increase in value this year. However, its Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) of 15.8 indicates that the ongoing uptrend may not be very robust, suggesting that the recent price increases might not have much driving force behind them.
Lately, the count of Bitcoin addresses owned by ‘whales’ (individuals or entities holding at least 1,000 BTC) has risen after reaching its lowest point since August 2024 earlier this month. Although this recent accumulation is encouraging, it’s worth noting that the number of whales still hasn’t reached the levels seen in mid-November, suggesting there’s potential for further growth.
BTC Current Uptrend Isn’t That Strong
The BTC ADX value stands at 15.8 as of now. On December 9, it was approximately 11, signifying a very weak trend strength. However, from December 11, there has been a gradual increase that took it to 17 momentarily before settling back to the current level. This incremental rise suggests some enhancement in momentum, but overall, it’s still relatively moderate.
The Average Directional Index (ADX), which gauges trend strength, is telling us that a reading below 20 indicates a weak or ambiguous trend, while values above 25 signal a robust trend. At present, Bitcoin’s ADX of 15.8 signals that the current uptrend might be questionable or not as strong as it seems.
In the past day, Bitcoin’s price has increased, but a low Average Directional Index (ADX) indicates that the upward trend may find it challenging to persist in the near future. This could make the price susceptible to fluctuations or even reversals in the short term.
Bitcoin Whales Started Accumulating Again
Over the past week, the number of wallets holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins has been gradually decreasing. On November 28, there were 2,089 such addresses, but by December 6, this figure had dropped to 2,061. This is the lowest number since August 2024, suggesting a trend of Bitcoin whales distributing their holdings. Larger holders seem to be reducing their positions during this time.
A significant drop in these figures typically indicates a sense of caution among market participants, since these leading entities hold substantial power to sway market patterns. Their moves are frequently scrutinized because they usually signal impending changes in market direction, be it bullish or bearish.
Starting from December 6th, there’s been an uptick in the number of whale wallets for Bitcoin, reaching approximately 2,085. This increase indicates increased accumulation and a growing sense of confidence among significant BTC holders. Although this is a positive development, it’s worth mentioning that we’re currently not seeing numbers as high as those recorded in mid-November.
As I observe the recent market trends, it seems that whales are gradually re-emerging; however, their overall activity still falls short of the robust levels seen previously, suggesting potential for additional growth and recovery in the near future.
BTC Price Prediction: Is $110,000 Possible In December?
At the moment, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates between approximately $103,000 as a resistance level and around $99,000 as a support point. A brief change in direction suggests an upcoming bullish pattern, as the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above another EMA, indicating this possibility.
Although the small space between the trend lines and a feeble Average Directional Index indicates that the upward trend may be insufficiently robust, this suggests that the present price action might not have much driving force behind it, making the trend susceptible to shifts.
If the current upward trend continues, Bitcoin’s value might reach or even surpass $103,000 in the near future, potentially climbing further to $105,000 and possibly reaching $110,000. Conversely, if the trend changes and Bitcoin fails to maintain its position above $99,000, the next significant support might be around $93,500. A more severe reversal could see it dropping to as low as $88,700, which would represent its lowest price point since mid-November.
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2024-12-12 16:47