Dust and the Promise of Stone

Market Reflection

Indeed, the tremors have begun. Concerns, like small stones dropped into a still pond, ripple through the valuations. Talk of slowed spending, of unforeseen consequences…it’s a familiar tune. The spring thaw, so eagerly anticipated, can just as easily give way to an unexpected frost. Yet, the larger players – Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Advanced Micro Devices – report a persistent demand. The machine continues to churn, though the rhythm feels…different. A dissonance, perhaps. The illusion of effortless ascent is fracturing.

Nvidia’s Wobble: A Tale of Chips and Shifting Fortunes

They started out lookin’ mighty fine, climbin’ a bit after hours. But then, like a prize mule takin’ a notion, it turned right about and headed south when the openin’ bell rang. A curious thing, indeed. Folks were expectin’ a grand parade, and got a dust storm instead. They beat expectations, mind you, on every count, and promised even grander things to come. Still, the market’s got a mind of its own, and it ain’t always reasonable.

The Weight of Forgotten Drives

They call it artificial intelligence, but it is merely a reflection of our own insatiable appetite for memory. Each algorithm, each neural network, demands a repository, a place to store the echoes of experience. The demand for storage, as Mosley knew, was not simply growing; it was becoming a geological force, reshaping the landscape of data centers. Seagate, a company that had spent decades perfecting the art of magnetic inscription, found itself unexpectedly at the epicenter of this new epoch. They were not the flashiest, not the most celebrated, yet their drives, spinning with the relentless rhythm of the earth, were the silent engines of this digital revolution.

A Quiet Exit: Reflections on TDS

The sale, recorded on February 17th, 2026, is a simple arithmetic. A subtraction, really. Yet, within that subtraction lies a story. Silver Point, it seems, has decided that the particular arc of Telephone and Data Systems no longer aligns with its own. A fund, after all, is not a collector of curiosities, but a pragmatist, seeking returns. And returns, like the seasons, are fickle things.

Market Wobbles & Dividend Dreams

The source of this mild disquiet? Nvidia (NVDA 5.55%), naturally. The company reported earnings that, by conventional standards, would be considered a triumph. But in this age of breathless expectations, merely exceeding forecasts is akin to a magician producing a rabbit when everyone demanded an elephant. The shares slumped, a reminder that the market rewards not just success, but the promise of ever-increasing success. Other tech titans – Alphabet (GOOG 1.88%), Amazon (AMZN 1.31%), and Apple (AAPL 0.48%) – felt the chill, proving that even giants cast shadows. It’s a curious phenomenon: a good report is celebrated, a great report is…analyzed to death.

The Aleatory Garden: A Valuation

The fund itself, JIVE, is a constructed labyrinth, a series of interconnected valuations designed to capture the elusive spirit of international equity. It promises access to the foreign – to Australia, Canada, Japan, the fragmented nations of Europe, and the more volatile gardens of the emerging markets. As of the stated date, February 18, 2026, the price stood at $90.32 – a number, like all numbers, susceptible to the distortions of time and perception. Its ascent over the past year – a 53.6% increase – is a statistical anomaly, a fleeting configuration within the vast, chaotic system. The S&P 500, by comparison, appears a sluggish, terrestrial creature.

Oracle: A Cloud Built on Borrowed Time

Oracle forecasts a substantial increase in revenue from its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) segment – from approximately $10 billion to $144 billion by fiscal 2030. Such projections, while not inherently dishonest, are presented with a troubling lack of context. The company intends to achieve this growth through a multi-pronged approach: public clouds, deployment within the infrastructure of competitors like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet’s Google Cloud, and on-premises hybrid solutions. This is, in essence, an attempt to be everywhere at once, a strategy that often results in being effective nowhere.

The Thiel Departure: A Shifting Landscape

Recent filings—those quarterly pronouncements of portfolio holdings—reveal a rather startling development. Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro, has…emptied itself. A complete divestment. One might imagine a landowner abandoning his fields, not in ruin, but with a deliberate, almost mournful, finality. Where once stood positions in the established titans—Tesla, Microsoft, Apple—now there is only…absence.

A Most Curious Pruning of the Machine

The particulars are thus: Obsidian CIO, in a fit of what I can only describe as prudent, or perhaps merely fickle, discernment, disposed of 422,567 shares of BOTZ during the last quarter. This reduction, while presented as a mere adjustment of portfolio weight, represents a rather significant shift in their affections. The value of their remaining position, alas, diminished by $14.95 million, a consequence of both the sale and the vagaries of the market. A most lamentable state of affairs, one might say, were one inclined to sympathy.

UiPath and the Automation Mirage

The broader market, predictably, exhibited a similar lack of conviction. The S&P 500 slipped a negligible 0.53% to 6,909, while the Nasdaq Composite fared worse, falling 1.18% to 22,878. Growth stocks, those perennial disappointments, led the decline. Alcoa, a name redolent of vanished industry, closed down 2.20%, and BP, ever resilient, eased a mere 0.26%. One observes a general air of ennui.