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A decline in valuation, then, may stem from one of three equally unsettling possibilities. The industry itself may be viewed with a justifiable skepticism, a suspicion that the promised revolution is merely a rearrangement of existing inefficiencies. The company in question – in this instance, Rigetti Computing – may be failing to navigate the labyrinthine path towards viable technology, perpetually lagging behind an invisible, ever-shifting standard. Or, most disturbingly, the market may simply be exercising its prerogative to lose patience, to withdraw funding from a project whose returns are perpetually deferred, a process as arbitrary and incomprehensible as the assignment of serial numbers in a vast, uncaring administration.

So, the halving. For those of you who came to Bitcoin late, it’s this event that happens roughly every four years where the reward for mining new Bitcoins gets cut in half. It’s basically a supply shock, designed to make everyone feel like there’s less to go around. Which, let’s be real, is a pretty effective marketing tactic. Historically, these halvings have been followed by price spikes. It’s like clockwork, which, in the crypto world, is frankly terrifying. We’ve had them in 2012, 2016, 2020, and just last year, 2024. The next one is slated for 2028, and the smart money (and by “smart,” I mean “people who are willing to gamble”) is expecting another run-up. The last halving saw Bitcoin jump from around $64,000 to over $100,000 by year-end, and eventually hit $126,000. So, yeah, the math is tempting.

Recent data from the Federal Reserve reveals a figure that should give pause: $7.8 trillion parked in money market funds. This is not merely a large number; it is a symptom. It suggests a growing reluctance to participate in the risks of the market, a preference for safety even at the expense of potential reward. It is, in essence, a vote of no confidence, however subtle.

There’s a company most folks see as a place for sharing pictures, for keeping up with kin. A place where time slips away in the scrolling. Meta Platforms. It’s built a life on that slipping, on those shared moments. Billions of souls touch its platforms each day, a quiet current running beneath the surface of things. But beneath that familiar face, something else is taking root.

In the year 2021, this phantom briefly possessed a most astonishing vitality. A return of 45,278,000 percent! A sum so preposterous it would transform a trifling investment – three kopecks, perhaps – into a fortune large enough to purchase a small principality. One could envision the investors, briefly crowned as digital potentates, before the inevitable fall. Alas, such frenzies are as ephemeral as morning mist. The Shiba Inu has since descended, a slow, mournful decline, losing nearly ninety percent of its former glory. And now, the question hangs in the air: will 2026 witness another miraculous ascent, a fleeting touch of the sun, and the improbable attainment of one dollar? The very thought is enough to induce a slight dizziness, a most unsettling wobble in the rational mind.

The time to observe, and perhaps cautiously participate, is now, before the herd descends. Two currents, seemingly disparate, yet converging with unsettling precision, suggest a potential breakout for Ethereum in the second quarter of 2026. One concerns the frantic activity within the blockchain itself, the other, the equally frantic machinations of those who govern our earthly realm.

But which, pray tell, will truly soar? A question that vexes the soul, like a persistent fly buzzing around a samovar. The usual prognosticators offer their pronouncements, their charts and graphs, their assurances of infallible algorithms. Poppycock, I say! The market is not a machine; it is a capricious beast, governed by whim and rumor, and occasionally, a well-timed bribe to the right official.

Okay, so they want to double fee-earning capital in five years, taking it from $580 billion to $1.2 trillion. Ambitious? Yes. Completely unhinged? Possibly. But here’s the thing: they actually did double it between 2020 and 2025, going from $277 billion to the current $580 billion. That’s roughly 15% a year. Which, let’s be honest, is the kind of growth that makes most fund managers weep with envy. So, they’ve proven they can do it. Doesn’t mean they will, of course. Wall Street is a fickle beast. A bear market could throw a wrench in things. But, you know, bear markets always seem to happen eventually. It’s just a matter of when. And frankly, I’m more concerned about the champagne socialists complaining about their losses.

This cloud, it seems, hath yielded a bounty of some $15.15 billion in the last reported quarter—a sum sufficient to maintain a small kingdom, or at least, to indulge the ambitions of a most enterprising company. And lo, a net income of $3.59 billion! One might almost suspect a touch of alchemy, were it not for the cold, hard logic of the balance sheet.