Three Plays Before the Crash

Nvidia. The name itself sounds like a virus. And in a way, it is. A beautiful, profitable virus. Everyone’s screaming about Artificial Intelligence, and these guys are shoveling the raw materials – the GPUs – into the machine. They’re not just making chips; they’re building the infrastructure for the digital hallucination that’s about to consume us all. ASICs? Forget those custom-built toys. They’re brittle, inflexible. Nvidia’s CUDA platform? That’s adaptable. It learns. It’s like giving the machine a brain, and then charging a fortune for the privilege. CUDA is years ahead, a tangled web of code and power, and they’re milking it for everything it’s worth. They won’t hold the whole market forever, NOTHING does, but they’ll grab a hefty slice of the pie before the robots take over. A solid, if slightly terrifying, bet.

SCHG vs. VUG: A Comparative Assessment

Both ETFs exhibit comparable cost structures, with identical expense ratios. The marginal difference in dividend yield is inconsequential. The disparity in Assets Under Management (AUM) is noteworthy; VUG’s significantly larger AUM may contribute to greater liquidity and tighter bid-ask spreads, though this advantage is often minimal for broadly held ETFs.

Lucid: A Cautionary Tale

Electric Vehicle Charging

Lucid, for those not actively dodging unsolicited investment advice from relatives, makes electric vehicles. Expensive ones. Very expensive ones. They’ve sunk a frankly terrifying amount of money into this venture, and while the cars themselves are, by all accounts, quite nice – a sort of rolling art installation – they’re facing the same problem as my uncle’s collection of porcelain thimbles: nobody really needs another one.

Arm Holdings: A Mildly Interesting Investment

Apparently, these “hyperscalers” – entities whose scale defies any reasonable attempt at comprehension – increased capital spending by 70% last year. Seventy percent! That’s almost enough to buy a small country. And they’re planning to increase it further. This explains the prevailing bullishness regarding the tech sector, a sentiment currently reflected in the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index, which is, as of this writing, 3% ahead of the S&P 500. Which, let’s be honest, is a bit like saying one particularly shiny pebble is ahead of a rather large pile of pebbles. Still, it’s a lead.

Vistra: A Necessary Evil

Last week brought the news of a twenty-year power purchase agreement between Vistra and Meta Platforms (META 0.04%). One pictures Mr. Zuckerberg, a man not known for his modesty, privately lamenting the necessity of relying on something so…unfashionable as nuclear power. Nevertheless, a contract is a contract, and it will, no doubt, be presented as a triumph of enlightened corporate responsibility. The ripple effect for energy investors, however, is rather more concrete.

Bitcoin’s Phantom Ascent

Cathie Wood, a woman who traffics in futures and forecasts, once dared to predict a price of $1.5 million per coin by 2030. A bold pronouncement, fueled, no doubt, by the intoxicating scent of exponential growth. She has since… recalibrated. A downward revision to $1.2 million. A concession, perhaps, to the creeping realization that even phantoms are subject to the laws of gravity, or at least, the fickle whims of the market. Still, a 1,159% potential upside. A sum that whispers promises of salvation to some, and the distinct echo of ruin to others.

UPS: A Brown Box and a Rumor of Turnaround

UPS, in its essence, is a logistical marvel. It picks up boxes and moves them. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Like explaining the universe as ‘mostly empty space.’ The devil, as always, is in the details. It’s not merely about A to B. It’s about A to B to C to D, all while avoiding rogue pigeons and the occasional existential crisis of a sorting machine.2

A Golden Dilemma: Prudence or Parity?

Both, you see, offer a convenient access to the yellow metal, shielding one from the bother of vaults and the anxieties of safekeeping. However, a discerning eye quickly detects a disparity. GLD, the elder statesman, commands a higher toll for its services – a commission, if you will, befitting a long-established house. GLDM, on the other hand, presents itself as a more economical player, offering a similar performance at a notably reduced cost. A most intriguing proposition, wouldn’t you agree?

Alphabet: A Measured Ascent

Market Observer

To anticipate a similar surge in the coming year—a replication of that 65% climb—would be, I suspect, a touch of the fanciful. Still, one might reasonably expect Alphabet to navigate the currents and exceed the general pace of the market. It is not a matter of spectacular leaps, but of steady, measured progress – the sort one observes in a well-tended garden.

Deere & The Diminishing Fortunes of FMC

The agricultural world, you see, is not standing still. It’s positively galloping forward, driven by the latest technological wizardry. And at the forefront of this delightful charge is a company with a history stretching back a good many years – Deere & Company, or John Deere as most chaps know it. One hundred and eighty-nine years they’ve been at it, and still leading the way. If a farmer requires anything from a modest lawn-mowing contraption to a full-blown combine harvester, the chances are it will bear the proud emblem of the prancing stag.