Bitcoin Price Stagnation Drains Bullish Sentiment

Stone Cold <a href="https://usdaed.com/btc-usd/">BTC</a> Drains Bull Mood From Long-Term Options: Crypto Daybook Americas

What to know:

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

It’s said that price is the best measure of appeal of any asset. To the dismay of bitcoin

bulls, the largest cryptocurrency’s price hasn’t gone anywhere in over 50 days, trading directionless above $100,000.

In an unexpected turn of events, the lack of movement or progress (stagnation) has neutralized the usual inclination towards bullishness in long-term options. The difference between call options (bullish) and put options (protective), as derived from Deribit-listed options expiring in June next year, is almost nonexistent, suggesting that both are being traded at comparable levels. Typically, the gap between long-term risk reversals has leaned towards a preference for bullish options, indicating a bias towards optimism.

Greg Magadini, Amberdata’s derivatives director, stated via email that the current trend of Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially turn unfavorable due to increased ‘risk-off’ volatility. He added that sustained institutional investments, where they sell call options and buy protective put options, might prolong this negative trend in the long term.

Discussing the movement within institutions, analysts have pointed out that the continuous buying by Strategy (MSTR) and other entities is not enough to counterbalance the overall decrease in Bitcoin’s current market demand. Recent blockchain research suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders are choosing to cash out their profits.

Some traders are now concentrating on the upcoming U.S. consumer price figures set for next Tuesday. This shift comes after the likelihood of a July Fed rate cut decreased following last Friday’s stronger-than-anticipated employment report. In a separate development, the worlds of pop culture and politics have intersected with cryptocurrency. Recently, rapper Drake mentioned bitcoin in one of his new songs, while Elon Musk announced the creation of the America Party, a political group that, according to him, will support Bitcoin.

As an analyst, I’m observing that these celebrity endorsements aren’t mere publicity stunts; they serve as signals of where the boundaries of acceptable discourse, known as the Overton window, are moving. The growing cultural significance of cryptocurrency is undeniable, and this widespread attention, whether it’s from artists or business leaders, often trickles down to investor confidence gradually over time.

In related updates, Ethereum‘s co-creator Vitalik Buterin and researcher Toni Wahrstätter have suggested EIP-7983 as a means to establish a higher gas limit for transactions on the blockchain. The objective is to enhance its resistance against specific Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks, boost stability, and provide consistent transaction fees.

Today, Russia has established a countrywide registry for cryptocurrency mining hardware, aiming to regulate the usage of Bitcoin and Ethereum mining devices and improve adherence to regulatory standards.

In typical market conditions, the price of oil decreased at the start of Monday, following an increase in production by OPEC. However, these drops were partially reversed later in the day due to a constrained supply situation in the actual oil market. Keep vigilant!

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (previously known as State of Crypto) is a one-day, exclusive event taking place in Washington on September 10th. This gathering provides an opportunity for general counsels, compliance officers, and regulatory leaders to interact with government officials who shape crypto legislation and regulatory supervision. Note that space is limited. Take advantage of the discount code CDB10 to get a 10% reduction on your registration before July 17th.

July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

BonkFun overtook Pumpfun to become the top Solana-based token launchpad, grabbing 55.2% market share.
The platform has facilitated over $540 million in volume across 175,000 token launches, generating $34 million in fees.
Pumpfun, which debuted in January 2024, now holds a 34.9% share with $341 million in volume, down from a previous dominant position.
BonkFun’s fee model drives demand: 58% of fees go toward buying BONK, with 50% of that burned and the rest used for rewards and reserves.
This structure creates constant buy pressure on BONK, a large-cap memecoin still trading below its peak.
At current rates, BONK buybacks could reach hundreds of millions annually, tightening token supply.
Smaller rivals like Believe, Jup Studio and Moonshot trail far behind in volume and user traction.

Derivatives Positioning

BTC open interest (OI) in perpetuals on offshore exchanges has held largely flat in the past 24 hours. For ETH, however, open interest rose alongside positive funding rates, implying a demand for bullish bets. Kucoin has seen over 20% increase in OI in ETH futures.
Open interest in XRP perpetuals rose 6% on Sunday, the most in four weeks.
Funding rates for BNB, TRX, BCH and XLM remain negative, indicating a bearish sentiment for these tokens.
On Deribit, call bias has drained from longer term BTC risk reversals. ETH’s June 2026 expiry calls still trade at a slight premium of over 1% to calls.
Block flows on Deribit featured BTC call spreads and longs in September and December higher strike BTC call options

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.97% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $108,770.30 (24hrs: +0.71%)
ETH is up 2.97% at $2,565.19 (24hrs: +2.21%)
CoinDesk 20 is up 2.46% at 3,101.28 (24hrs: +1.46%)
Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 5 bps at 2.93%
BTC funding rate is at 0.0003% (0.3362% annualized) on Binance

DXY is up 0.22% at 97.39
Gold futures are down 0.71% at $3,319.30
Silver futures are down 0.89% at $36.76
Nikkei 225 closed down 0.56% at 39,587.68
Hang Seng closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83
FTSE is down 0.03% at 8,820.67
Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.37% at 5,308.17
DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.77% at 44,828.53
S&P 500 closed up 0.83% at 6,279.35
Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% at 20,601.10
S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.01% at 27,036.16
S&P 40 Latin America closed on Friday up 0.49% at 2,741.39
U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.2 bps at 4.352%
E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 6,300.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.52% at 22,941.75
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.07% at 45,065.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 65.23% (-0.11%)
Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.02359 (0.21%)
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 880 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $58.92
Total Fees: 4.01 BTC / $435.096
CME Futures Open Interest: 151,005 BTC
BTC priced in gold: 32.7 oz
BTC vs gold market cap: 9.26%

Technical Analysis

BONK’s price has convincingly topped the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) confirming the bullish trend. Prices failed to establish a foothold above the key average in mid-May, which led to a deeper sell-off.
The latest breakout has shifted focus to resistance at $0.00002583, the high on May 12.

Crypto Equities

Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $403.99 (+0.43%), -0.41% at $402.35 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $355.8 (+0.38%), -0.74% at $353.17
Circle (CRCL): closed at $188.77 (+6.07%), +1.79% at $192.15
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.75 (-2.12%), -0.64% at $21.61
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.66 (-0.79%), -0.68% at $17.54
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.17 (-0.25%), -0.33% at $12.13
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18 (+2.51%), -0.89% at $17.84
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.25 (-1.84%), -0.57% at $12.18
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.03 (+3.5%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $40.45 (+2.3%), -1.71% at $39.76
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $32.8 (+11.41%, +3.02% at $33.79

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $601.8 million
Cumulative net flows: $49.62 billion
Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $148.5 million
Cumulative net flows: $4.42 billion
Total ETH holdings ~4.16 million

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

The chart shows trading volumes in bitcoin’s spot and futures markets have dropped to $5 billion and $31.2 billion, the lowest for both in over a year.
Activity typically slows during the summer, often leading to weak order book depth, which makes the market price vulnerable to few large orders.