As a seasoned crypto investor with a knack for political prediction markets, I find myself in a unique position to analyze and speculate on the 2024 US Presidential election. With over $3 billion wagered on Polymarket, it’s clear that this platform has become a significant player in the world of predictions.
The much-awaited 2024 U.S. Presidential election has caused a stir in the leading prediction market Polymarket, as the amount of wagers placed on who will win it has gone beyond $3 billion. Notably, bets on the Republican candidate Donald Trump have exceeded $1.29 billion.
Based on information from Polymarket, wagers on Vice President Kamala Harris have surpassed $800 million, while the market indicates that the probability of Donald Trump winning the election is approximately 61.5%, contrasting with a 38.5% chance for Harris.
Significantly, Trump’s predicted chances of winning decreased from 66.9% to 57% over the weekend, but then began to rebound. According to economist Justin Wolfers, this decline in Trump’s odds was due to a reported weakening of key influencers and the tightening of the race as indicated by recent polls.
Data shows that top Trump position holders on Polymarket are currently seeing unrealized losses of around $4 million, with the top holder zxgngl currently holding a massive $17.4 million position that was facing a potential unrealized loss of $900,000, and is now sitting on $96,000 of unrealized gains.
Among the major investors following Trump, Fredi9999 holds a position worth $13 million, with potential profits of approximately $1.5 million yet to be realized. Meanwhile, other significant players like GCottrell93 and Theo4 are facing losses totaling around $660,000 that have not been cashed out, while they also have potential gains of roughly $200,000 each that have not materialized yet.
The three individuals with significant stakes in Kamala Harris’ position are Leier, Ly67890, and L98189899, holding positions worth approximately $4.1 million, $2 million, and $21.9 million respectively. The largest investor is currently experiencing a loss of about $840,000 that has yet to be realized, whereas the second-largest holder enjoys realized gains of around $80,000. Meanwhile, the third-largest investor is facing an unrealized loss of approximately $27,000.
It’s important to point out that historically, the market on Polymarket has demonstrated a pronounced absence of trading activity, implying that major positions can significantly impact the probability of any given candidate. However, there appears to be an increase in available liquidity in recent times, suggesting a more balanced influence on the odds.
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2024-11-05 19:03