As a seasoned researcher with over two decades of experience in financial markets and cryptocurrencies, I find the recent analysis by Geoff Kendrick and Alex Krüger intriguing. The interplay between geopolitics and digital assets is a fascinating subject, one that I’ve been following closely since the early days of Bitcoin.
Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, has shared his team’s analysis on potential Bitcoin price fluctuations in light of the U.S. presidential election results. Using daily volatility rates and commonly used price points, they forecasted that Bitcoin might reach approximately $73,000 by November 5th (Election Day).
Based on the findings in the report, if Donald Trump wins the election, it’s predicted that the price of Bitcoin might initially spike by around 4%, potentially reaching around $76,000 once the election results are confirmed. Kendrick’s team also anticipates a total price increase of roughly 10% in the days after the election. If Republicans win both the presidency and Congress, Standard Chartered has set a goal for Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of the year, under the assumption that a Republican-led government would likely support cryptocurrency-friendly policies.
If Kamala Harris becomes president, Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin might start trading lower at first. Yet, he also foresees it reaching new peaks by the end of 2024, approximately $75,000. These predictions are derived from analysis based on trends observed in options markets, which have aided Standard Chartered in estimating potential price fluctuations after the election.
According to Kendrick’s prediction, the price of Bitcoin could potentially rise to approximately $73,000 before the upcoming election, primarily influenced by the likelihood in betting markets that favors a victory for Donald Trump.
One day following the publication of Kenrick’s report, crypto expert Alex Krüger publicly disclosed his strategy for the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, emphasizing a change in his investment tactics.
On October 25th, Krüger shared on social media platform X (previously Twitter) that he had originally intended to invest in leveraged positions for both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). This was if it seemed likely that former President Donald Trump would win the election. However, he has since adjusted his strategy and is now focusing solely on Solana (SOL), viewing it as a potentially more promising investment choice under a Trump-led market, having removed ETH from his plans.
Krüger outlined his approach, which primarily revolves around election night. His plan is to employ leverage, possibly utilizing long-term futures contracts for SOL, if Trump appears to be in the lead. Initially, he had planned to incorporate Ethereum into this strategy, but has since shifted focus solely on Solana. He predicts that the price of SOL will significantly increase following a Trump victory, although he also foresees some market turbulence during election night due to the intricate methodology used for vote counting and reporting.
When questioned about the details of his plan, Krüger explained that it hinges on where he stands at the end of the election. He hinted at potentially using SOL, with a minimum safety margin of 10% above the baseline. However, he clarified that he won’t finalize his strategy until the election night events unfold. Furthermore, he revealed his intention to take a long position in the spot market for SOL, a stance he intends to maintain throughout the election.
Krüger’s shift from Ethereum (ETH) isn’t because he thinks the ETH/USD pair will decrease; instead, his uncertainty is based on broader market movements and fundamental indicators. Krüger emphasized that the ETH/BTC pair has been in a prolonged downtrend for many years, and there hasn’t been a major sell-off event to hint at a possible turnaround. The continuous drop in ETH’s performance compared to Bitcoin implies a changing trend among investors.
Additionally, Krüger noted that there’s a trend of on-chain activities shifting from Ethereum, suggesting that user interaction is transitioning towards other networks. Moreover, he mentioned that although Layer 2 solutions are becoming more prevalent within the Ethereum community, they haven’t yet produced significant value that directly benefits ETH.
Instead of saying “In contrast,” consider using “However.”
Krüger further commented that upcoming regulatory adjustments might significantly impact Ethereum’s development trajectory. He proposed that the possible resignation of Gary Gensler, the current Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), could foster a more advantageous scenario for ETH.
A potential change in regulations could allow Ethereum ETFs to secure their investments, making them more enticing for investors. Interestingly, the same regulatory enhancements could also favor Solana, potentially resulting in Solana-based ETFs. This double advantage, as per Krüger’s analysis, seems to erase Ethereum’s unique advantage.
If Trump were to lead in the election, I had intended to invest heavily in Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) that night as my primary crypto assets for quick liquidity. However, I have decided to exclude ETH from this strategy. Everything else remains unchanged for me.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) October 25, 2024
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2024-11-04 13:00