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There exists, naturally, a murmur of skepticism. Some observers, those seasoned by years of watching technological waves crest and break, express a quiet concern. They seek confirmation, a sturdier foundation beneath this edifice of optimism. It is a reasonable demand, born of experience, and one that any prudent investor might share. The three-year ascent has been remarkable, undeniably, but even the most vigorous climbers eventually encounter a plateau, or, indeed, a descent.

Yet, should it break free from this tedious orbit, a tripling of its value is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility. A fanciful notion, perhaps, but one worthy of a moment’s consideration, even for the most hardened cynic. One must remember, after all, that fortunes are rarely built on prudence alone.

To suggest a repetition of such performance over the next quarter-century is… audacious, to say the least. A 31.72% annual growth rate sustained for so long would yield a valuation exceeding the entire economic output of the United States – a grotesque inflation of value, a phantom limb reaching for an impossible future. It’s a calculation that borders on the theological, a belief in perpetual motion within a system inherently governed by entropy. The market, like humanity, is prone to exhaustion, to the inevitable decline that follows every ascent. To ignore this is not optimism, but delusion.

Other companies are, predictably, attempting to gain a foothold. The pharmaceutical world is not known for its generosity; competition, rather than benevolence, will dictate the future. For the astute investor, this presents an opportunity. It is not a question of whether another contender will emerge, but which one is best positioned to do so. A careful assessment, devoid of hype, is essential.

The Financial Times – a newspaper full of terribly serious grown-ups – has been muttering about “AI risks” and “corporate bonds.” Honestly, they make it sound like the world is about to be swallowed by a giant, calculating spreadsheet. Morgan Stanley reckons these tech titans will gobble up around $400 billion in bonds by 2026. That’s enough money to buy a small country, or perhaps a very large collection of rubber ducks.

Buffett, a name now etched into the very grain of American finance, had a touch for discerning value, a patience that bordered on the mythical. He had, over sixty years, navigated the treacherous currents of the market, accumulating a wealth not just in dollars, but in stories. Stories of Apple, a fruit once deemed a passing fancy, now a cornerstone of modern life, its price ascending like a phantom limb. And American Express, a card of credit and consequence, a symbol of aspiration and, occasionally, ruin, its value multiplying like whispers in a crowded room. These were his early triumphs, the seeds of a legacy that continued to bloom, even as the old man retreated into the shadows.

IonQ (IONQ 0.65%). The name sounds like a cleaning product, doesn’t it? Anyway, it was briefly all the rage, shares shooting up like a caffeinated squirrel. But now? Well, now it’s down nearly 60% from its peak. Which is… concerning. Is this a ‘falling knife’ situation? Or are clever people quietly scooping up the bargains? I honestly haven’t decided. Probably best to just lie low and avoid looking at the charts. That usually helps.

Dozens of these ventures find themselves humbled, their valuations diminished. Yet, not all are equally deserving of our attention – or, indeed, our coin. Let us, therefore, examine two players in this drama, one offering a glimmer of reason, the other a testament to the enduring power of self-deception.