Okay, so oil prices. It’s been…a lot. One minute we’re bracing for geopolitical fireworks, the next it’s like everyone collectively remembered we need to get the kids to soccer practice and suddenly things calm down. Brent crude did its dramatic peak-and-valley routine—briefly flirting with $120, then deciding that was a bit much—all because of the usual suspects. Basically, it’s like watching a reality TV show where the plot changes every commercial break. Which, let’s be honest, is most of the news these days. All this makes picking oil stocks feel less like investing and more like competitive gambling. But fear not, because there are a couple of companies that seem determined to be the adults in the room. Or at least, the ones with the best accountants.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil (XOM +2.66%) is…big. Like, really big. It’s the kind of company that probably has its own weather system. Last year they raked in $28.8 billion in earnings and $52 billion in cash flow. That’s not pocket change, folks. That’s enough to buy a small country…or at least a really nice golf course. They’ve been on a mission to invest in their most profitable assets—the stuff that’s easy to get and makes the most money—while simultaneously trimming the fat. Apparently, they’ve saved $15.1 billion since 2019, which is more than all the other major oil companies combined. It’s like they read a self-help book titled “How to Be Efficient and Also Very Rich.” And their balance sheet? Let’s just say it’s the envy of every other oil company. They’re practically Scrooge McDuck swimming in cash.
They’re planning to pour billions more into these “advantaged resources” over the next five years, and they expect another $20 billion in cost savings by 2030. The goal? To boost earnings by $25 billion and cash flow by $35 billion. Which, if you’re keeping score at home, is a lot of money. They also predict they’ll have $145 billion in surplus cash by 2030, even if oil stays around $65 a barrel. That’s enough to keep their dividend going (43 years and counting!) and buy back a whole lot of stock. Basically, they’re printing money. It’s almost…unsportsmanlike.
Chevron
Chevron (CVX +1.36%) isn’t quite as massive as Exxon, but don’t let that fool you. It’s like the slightly younger, equally ambitious sibling. They have one of the lowest “breakeven” prices in the industry—less than $50 a barrel—which means they can make money even when things are tough. And their balance sheet is, shall we say, robust. They’re also focusing on investing in their best assets and cutting costs, saving $1.5 billion last year. This allowed them to grow free cash flow by 35%, even as oil prices fell by 15%. That’s what I call a good day at the office. They returned a record $27 billion to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks. It’s like they’re actively trying to make their investors happy. Who knew?
Chevron expects another $12.5 billion in free cash flow this year, and they think they can grow that at a compound annual rate of over 10% through 2030, even if oil stays at $70 a barrel. That should keep the dividends flowing (39 years straight!) and allow them to buy back a whole lot of stock—between $10 and $20 billion a year. It’s a virtuous cycle of profit and shareholder happiness. It’s almost…disturbing.
Built to withstand volatility
Exxon and Chevron have spent the last few years streamlining their operations, focusing on their most profitable assets, and generally getting their houses in order. This puts them in a surprisingly good position to weather the current storm—or, you know, the fluctuations in oil prices. They can make money when prices are high, and they can still thrive when prices fall. Which, in this crazy market, makes them two of the most sensible oil stocks you can buy. They’re not flashy, they’re not promising miracles, they’re just…competent. And in this business, sometimes that’s enough.
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2026-03-24 20:02