Chewy, the online purveyor of pet supplies, prepares to announce its quarterly earnings on March 25th. The stock, a shadow of its former self – down seventy percent over five years – hangs in the balance. One wonders if a small purchase now might not be a gesture of…optimism. Or perhaps merely a resignation to the inevitable ebb and flow of things.
It began, as so many stories do, with a surge. The pandemic, that peculiar time, gifted Chewy a captive audience. Orders flooded in, customers multiplied, and for a brief, shining moment, it seemed as though the brick-and-mortar pet stores might truly be relics of a bygone era. But the world, predictably, resumed its course. People ventured out again. And Chewy, like a houseguest overstaying its welcome, found itself…adjusting.
| Metric | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | 9M 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Customer Growth (YOY) | 8% | (1%) | (2%) | 2% | 5% |
| Net Sales per Active Customer Growth (YOY) | 16% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 5% |
| Net Sales Growth (YOY) | 24% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 8% |
The numbers, as they often do, tell a story of diminishing returns. A slowing of momentum. The rise of Amazon, of course, casts a long shadow. A competitor with…resources. One cannot help but feel a certain sympathy for Chewy, a smaller vessel attempting to navigate a vast and turbulent sea.
There have been efforts, certainly. The Autoship program, a commendable attempt to cultivate loyalty. The expansion of private-label products, a pragmatic response to market pressures. The Vet Care clinics, a noble, if perhaps ambitious, undertaking. One wonders, though, if these are merely bandages on a deeper wound. A slowing of the essential life force.
The company now derives 83.9% of its net sales from Autoship customers, a figure that has risen steadily. The number of Chewy+ subscribers, however, remains undisclosed. A small mystery. One can only speculate. It is, after all, the unspoken things that often define our lives.
When the earnings report arrives, investors will undoubtedly scrutinize these metrics. They will look for signs of stabilization. A glimmer of hope. But one suspects that even the most favorable results will not fully mask the underlying truth: that the days of explosive growth are over. That Chewy, like so many companies, is simply…maturing.
Analysts predict a modest increase in revenue and EBITDA for the coming year. A respectable showing, perhaps. But hardly a cause for celebration. The enterprise value of $8.9 billion suggests a degree of undervaluation. But value, as we all know, is a subjective thing. A matter of perspective.
To accumulate the stock now, then, would be an act of…faith. A quiet belief in the possibility of a turnaround. Or perhaps merely a willingness to accept a slow, steady decline. The market, after all, is rarely kind to those who linger too long. And life, as we all know, goes on, indifferent to our hopes and dreams.
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2026-03-24 03:13