
The notion that this is a temporary inconvenience, a mere ‘spike’ as the optimists have it, is frankly naive. Three factors conspire to suggest a more protracted period of elevated prices. Firstly, a disruption at Hormuz is not akin to a pipeline fracture, swiftly remedied by competent engineers. Commercial shipping, ever cautious, is already withdrawing from the region, and the subsequent re-routing of tankers, the renegotiation of insurance premiums, will be a process measured in months, not weeks. Secondly, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, once a reassuring bulwark against such contingencies, is, shall we say, depleted. The Americans, having squandered their reserves on various geopolitical adventures, find themselves less able to smooth over unpleasantness. And thirdly, even before the current drama unfolded, the price of crude was already exhibiting a distinct upward trajectory. The fundamentals, one gathers, were tightening, even without the benefit of Iranian posturing.