Right. So, it’s March 2026. Bitcoin‘s still hovering around $70,000. Which, frankly, is a bit… underwhelming. I mean, it was pretty much the same price on Election Day 2024. One had hoped for more. A bit of a surge, perhaps? It makes you wonder if all the talk of ‘pro-crypto administrations’ was just, well, talk. Honestly, the waiting is the hardest part. I’ve been staring at charts for hours. It’s not good for the complexion.
The question, of course, is: is it too late? Have I missed the boat? Is this the point where sensible people sell and I’m left holding the digital equivalent of a very expensive, slightly tarnished paperweight? Some people are already saying yes. That it’s all over. They’re probably very calm, well-adjusted people. I envy them. I really do.
But… no. I don’t think so. I’ve been tracking this thing for a while now, and there’s a pattern. A horribly predictable, yet consistently ignored pattern. It’s like dating – you think this time it will be different, and then… well, you know.
The Four-Year Cycle (and My Sanity)
Bitcoin doesn’t go straight up. It never does. It’s more of a… wobble. A four-year wobble, to be precise. Three years of optimistic climbing, followed by one year of what can only be described as a digital panic attack. After each ‘panic attack’, the obituaries are written. “Bitcoin is Dead!” they scream. And then, inevitably, it bounces back. It’s remarkably resilient. Annoyingly so.
Take 2021, for example. $69,000 in November. Then… crash. By the end of 2022, it was down to $16,000. I nearly had a breakdown. I considered taking up pottery. Everyone was saying it was over. But then, predictably, it started climbing again. Reached $100,000 by 2024, and even hit $126,000 last year. It’s like a bad habit. You know it’s probably not good for you, but you keep going back for more.
So, if history is any guide (and let’s be honest, it’s the only thing I have to guide me), the cycle will repeat. There are no guarantees, obviously. But we’ve seen this movie before. Bitcoin might dip lower this year. It probably will. But I suspect it will climb higher next year, on its way to a new all-time high. Some people, like Cathie Wood, even think it could hit $1 million by 2030. Which, frankly, feels… optimistic. But then again, I’m a trader. Optimism is practically a job requirement.
Institutional Adoption (and My Hope)
Even after the 40% slide over the last six months (don’t even ask), the institutional investors are still piling in. Which is… reassuring. It suggests that maybe, just maybe, this isn’t all a mirage. Wall Street banks are integrating it into the system. Investors are buying those spot Bitcoin ETFs. Companies are hoarding it like digital gold. And the White House is… well, they’re talking about it. Which, in Washington terms, is practically an endorsement.
It makes me think we might still be early. To paraphrase Winston Churchill (because everyone paraphrases Winston Churchill), this isn’t the end, nor even the beginning of the end. It’s, instead, only the end of the beginning. I’m still cautiously optimistic. I’ve started a spreadsheet. It’s mostly color-coded panic symbols at this point, but it’s a start.
Units of Cryptocurrency Lost: 12. Hours Spent Watching Charts: 9. Number of Panicked Texts to Friends: 24. Will become disciplined long-term investor: Unlikely.
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2026-03-22 14:12