Right. Palantir. (PLTR 1.52%). Let’s be honest, it’s been…a lot. A rollercoaster designed by someone who actively dislikes human wellbeing. Epic gains, sure – 1,860% in three years is…noticeable. But also, a habit of plummeting like a lead balloon. Ten times, apparently. At least ten. It’s enough to give anyone palpitations. Between 2021 and 2023, it lost 80% of its value. Eighty. Percent. I’ve seen less dramatic drops in my own judgment, and frankly, that’s saying something.
Currently, you’re looking at a price-to-earnings ratio that’s…ambitious. 244 times earnings. 117 times forward earnings. It’s the kind of number that makes even me raise an eyebrow, and I’ve seen things. But, apparently, someone at UBS thinks this is a “premier growth story.” Bless their optimistic heart. They probably still believe in Santa Claus.
UBS Thinks It’s a Buy. (Naturally.)
Karl Keirstea, over at UBS, recently decided to double down on the Palantir enthusiasm, raising his price target to $200. That’s a potential 29% upside, apparently. He didn’t bother explaining himself this time, which, frankly, is refreshing. Last time he upgraded it, he rambled on about AI and data. Predictable, really. It’s the buzzwords du jour, isn’t it?
He’s not entirely wrong, though. Palantir is sitting at the intersection of two things people are throwing money at: AI and data. And, according to his “channel checks” – whatever those are – demand is “very strong.” I suspect a lot of people are just afraid to admit they don’t understand what Palantir does. It’s a powerful motivator, that fear.
Their fourth quarter revenue was $1.4 billion, up 70% year-over-year. Ten consecutive quarters of accelerating growth. It’s…impressive. Their U.S. commercial segment – the one with the fancy Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) – soared 137% and now accounts for 36% of total revenue. Everyone’s leveraging AIP for real-world solutions. Or, at least, saying they are. I’m always suspicious of “real-world solutions.”
Their remaining performance obligation (RPO) – basically, money they haven’t booked yet – jumped 143% to $4.2 billion. Another $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter alone. It’s like watching a balloon inflate. You know it’s going to pop eventually, but you can’t quite look away.
And the guidance? Oh, the guidance. They’re forecasting revenue growth of 60% to roughly $7.19 billion in 2026. U.S. commercial revenue is expected to hit $3.14 billion, with growth of at least 115%. “At least.” That’s a wonderfully vague promise. They’re either incredibly confident or spectacularly delusional. Possibly both.
Look, let’s be clear: this isn’t a stock for the faint of heart. If you’re prone to panic attacks or have a weak constitution, steer clear. But, if you have a high risk tolerance and a morbid curiosity, Palantir might be worth a look. Defense modernization and sovereign AI are potential catalysts. Or, they could be overhyped buzzwords. Honestly, it’s a coin toss.
If you’re intrigued but wary of the valuation, you’re not alone. Don’t bet the farm. A small position or dollar-cost averaging are sensible strategies. Slow and steady wins the race, even if the race is slightly unhinged.
The combination of accelerating revenue and expanding profits? It’s…compelling. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. Nothing ever is. But Palantir is, at the very least, interesting. And in this market, that’s saying something.
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2026-03-19 10:03