Carnival Corp. announces its earnings next week. They’re a big cruise line, which means a lot of people are floating around on water, hoping everything goes okay. So it goes.
The stock has been doing… something. Up, down, mostly sideways. People bought it, people sold it. A perfectly reasonable pattern, really. It’s tripled in three years, which is either a triumph or a sign of something terribly wrong with the universe. Probably both.
But the last six months? Down twenty percent. 2026 hasn’t been kind. A little dip. A little wobble. It happens. The important thing is, they’re still afloat. For now.
The Good
Analysts expect Carnival to earn a few pennies per share. Eighteen, if you’re keeping track. That’s better than last year. A tiny victory, but a victory nonetheless. People like profits. It’s a strange habit, really.
And they usually beat expectations. Look at this chart. Numbers going up. Numbers going down. It’s all just numbers, really. They’ve surprised the market ten times in a row. That’s… consistent. A little unnerving, perhaps. But consistent.
| Period | EPS Estimate | Actual EPS | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Q3 2023 | $0.75 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Fiscal Q4 2023 | ($0.13) | ($0.07) | 46% |
| Fiscal Q1 2024 | ($0.18) | ($0.14) | 22% |
| Fiscal Q2 2024 | ($0.02) | $0.11 | 650% |
| Fiscal Q3 2024 | $1.15 | $1.27 | 10% |
| Fiscal Q4 2024 | $0.07 | $0.14 | 94% |
| Fiscal Q1 2025 | $0.02 | $0.13 | 485% |
| Fiscal Q2 2025 | $0.35 | $0.24 | 46% |
| Fiscal Q3 2025 | $1.32 | $1.43 | 9% |
| Fiscal Q4 2025 | $0.25 | $0.34 | 39% |
They beat expectations by at least nine percent. A good run. But everything ends. So it goes.
Other cruise lines are doing well too. They operate on a different schedule, of course. But the general trend is… upward. For now.
The Bad
Revenue isn’t soaring. Just a modest increase. Six percent, if you’re curious. It’s a seasonal business, they say. But it feels… underwhelming. Like a lukewarm glass of water on a hot day.
This is the fifth quarter in a row with single-digit growth. Not a disaster, exactly. But not exactly a triumph either. Meanwhile, other cruise lines are posting double-digit gains. A little inconvenient, that.
The Ugly
There was optimism earlier this year. People were booking cruises. The company reinstated its dividend. Demand was strong. But then the world happened. It always does.
The situation in Iran is… complicated. Fuel costs are rising. Inflation is a problem. And people are starting to worry about safety. A cruise is a luxury. When times are tough, luxuries are the first to go. So it goes.
Carnival is the worst-performing cruise line stock this year. It’s the entry-level option. The one for the masses. If anyone is going to cancel their cruise, it’ll be a Carnival customer. It’s just… logical.
The stock is cheap. Ten times this year’s profit target. Nine times next year’s forecast. A bargain, some might say. But bargains can be traps. If Carnival offers a weak outlook, things could get… interesting. Enjoy the cruise, if you can. Just remember where the lifeboats are. And don’t expect a miracle.
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2026-03-18 17:14