So, Eli Lilly (LLY 5.45%) is down five percent today. Five percent! And you know who’s to blame? HSBC. Honestly, HSBC. They downgrade the stock, and suddenly I’m supposed to be surprised? It’s just…rude.
They “reduced” their rating, which is just a fancy way of saying they think it’s going to do badly. It’s the principle of the thing! You can’t just go around “reducing” things without a proper explanation. It’s unsettling.
The Analyst, The Market, and The Sheer Audacity
This analyst, Rajesh Kumar, he thinks everyone’s way off on the obesity drug market. Everyone’s saying $150 billion, and he’s like, “Nah, maybe $80 to $120 billion.” Like he knows something we don’t. It’s infuriating. And it’s not even about being right or wrong, it’s about the confidence with which he states it. The sheer chutzpah!
The problem, apparently, is price competition. Which, okay, makes sense. But then he brings up discontinuation rates. People stop taking the drugs. Well, no kidding! They either get better, decide they don’t want to inject themselves anymore, or realize they’re still craving donuts. It’s called life! You’d think analysts would account for basic human behavior.
And now, price cuts. Multiple rounds. It’s like they’re deliberately trying to complicate things. They cut the price, then try to make up for it with volume. Volume! It’s a shell game! I swear, these companies are just making things up as they go along.
The Valuation: A Disaster Waiting to Happen
Forty-three times trailing earnings? Seriously? And even more on free cash flow? It’s ridiculous. They’re valuing this company based on…hope? And analysts are predicting 22 percent growth? Twenty-two percent! In this economy? It’s a fantasy. They’re building castles in the air, I tell you. Castles in the air!
So, if Kumar is right—and, frankly, he might be—this stock is even more overvalued than it looks. Which is saying something. It’s just… irresponsible. It’s like they’re daring you to short it. Daring you! And you know what? I might just have to.
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2026-03-17 20:04