NVDA vs. MU: Billionaires & Bad Timing?

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Right, so. Everyone’s chasing the AI dream, which means Nvidia (NVDA +1.63%) and Micron (MU +3.68%) are having a moment. Both are essential for building the data centers that power this whole thing. Except, two very clever hedge fund managers – Israel Englander and David Tepper, the kind who usually beat the S&P 500 by a comfortable margin – recently did something…odd. They sold Nvidia and bought Micron. Now, I’m not saying they’re wrong. Just that it’s…a choice. And I’m here to dissect it, mostly because I have a vested interest in not making the same mistake. Don’t judge.

Micron’s shares have popped 50% since December, while Nvidia’s have…flatlined. Wall Street, predictably, is now all over Nvidia. But here’s the thing about Wall Street: they’re usually late to the party. They arrive just as everyone else is nursing a hangover and wondering what they’ve done with their lives.

  • Nvidia’s analysts are predicting a 47% upside, putting their target price at $265. Sounds optimistic. Or delusional. It depends on your caffeine intake.
  • Micron’s analysts are a bit more…grounded. 6% upside, with a target price of $450. Which, let’s be honest, is still a hefty chunk of change.

Let’s break down what’s actually going on with these two, shall we? Because frankly, I need to talk it through. It helps me think. And maybe, just maybe, it’ll help you avoid a financial disaster.

Nvidia: The One They Dumped

Nvidia. Graphics cards, CPUs, networking…the whole shebang. They basically invented the GPU, which is the engine that drives all this AI madness. And they’re dominating the AI accelerator market with over 80% market share. It’s…a bit intimidating, honestly. Like, what if they decide to just own the future? But they’re not just about hardware. They’ve built this entire ecosystem of software tools. It’s a fortress. A very expensive fortress.

Morningstar’s Brian Colello says they have a “wide economic moat.” A moat! Like they’re a medieval castle protecting its treasure. And he thinks they’ll stay on top even if companies like Google start building their own chips. Which, let’s face it, they probably will. Everyone wants a piece of the pie. But Nvidia’s already got most of it.

Their last quarter was…robust. Revenue up 73% to $68 billion. Earnings up 82%. It’s almost obscene. And they’re predicting even more growth. Trading at 38 times adjusted earnings? Seems…reasonable, actually. For a company that’s growing this fast. It’s a buy, frankly. A very, very tempting buy. I might just…never mind.

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Micron Technology: The One They Picked Up

Micron makes memory and storage. DRAM, NAND flash…the stuff that holds all the data. It’s…less glamorous than AI accelerators, admittedly. But just as essential. Think of it like the plumbing of the AI world. You don’t think about it until it breaks. They supply everything from PC’s to smartphones to data centers. And they’re getting a bigger slice of the AI pie. Which, good for them. But is it enough?

Apparently, HBM feeds the accelerators, DRAM stores the memory, and NAND keeps everything persistent. It’s all very technical. And frankly, a little overwhelming. But Giorgio Zanella at Technotrend Market Research explained it, so I’m just passing it on. Because I’m a good person. Mostly.

They’re the third largest supplier of DRAM and NAND, and they’ve been gaining market share. But here’s the rub: it’s mostly because of supply constraints. There’s a shortage of chips, so everyone’s scrambling for whatever they can get. It’s not exactly a sustainable competitive advantage. It’s like being the only coffee shop in a deserted town. You’ll do well…until someone else opens up.

Their last quarter was impressive. Revenue up 56% to $13.6 billion. Earnings more than doubled. But a lot of that was driven by higher prices. Because of the shortage. It’s a temporary boost. The industry is cyclical. Supply will eventually catch up, prices will fall, and Micron will be…well, let’s just say it won’t be quite as pretty. Trading at 38 times adjusted earnings? Seems…optimistic. Especially considering Wall Street expects earnings to fall after 2027. They’re predicting a 17% annual increase through 2029. That’s…not terrible. But it’s not Nvidia. I’m just saying. I might take a small position. Just to be…prudent. But Nvidia is still the more attractive stock, in my humble, slightly anxious opinion.

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2026-03-17 11:13