They call it Optimus. A humanoid robot. The promise is efficiency, a future where machines do the work we don’t want to. Sounds good on paper. The market, predictably, is already pricing in a miracle. A stock can do funny things when fed a steady diet of dreams. I’ve seen it before. Plenty of times.
Navitas, a maker of… well, tiny, intricate things that make other things go, has seen its stock price do a rather enthusiastic jig lately – up 188% in the last twelve months. A performance that suggests either genuine innovation, or a very successful campaign of convincing people that it is genuinely innovative.1 Arm, on the other hand, is up a more modest 13% year to date, but down 21% over the last year. But, and this is important, Arm seems the more sensible wager. Let’s delve into the why, shall we?
Market participation has thinned so much, it’s like the entire crypto world took a nap and forgot to wake up. ETP trading slumped to $17 billion-so low, it’s the kind of number you’d expect from a toddler playing with a calculator. Institutions and retail investors alike are now more engaged with their cat videos than with Bitcoin.
For those of us possessing the foresight – or, let us be honest, a touch of gambler’s intuition – to have invested a mere thousand dollars in Nvidia a decade past, the present offers a rather delightful arithmetic puzzle. A puzzle with a solution shimmering with five-digit numerals. It’s the sort of return that compels one to reconsider the very nature of ‘value’ and perhaps, invest in a small, exquisitely crafted writing desk.
It is a curious paradox. The underlying business, by all accounts, flourishes. Revenue growth accelerates with each passing quarter, a defiant surge against the tide of skepticism. Yet, the question persists, a gnawing unease: can this momentum, this apparent vitality, truly justify the premium valuation the market has bestowed? To contemplate a stock’s potential is to confront the bear case, to stare into the abyss of doubt. How far might Netflix fall, should investors lose faith in its long-term pricing power, adrift in this increasingly crowded sea of entertainment?
According to the ever-reliable price data, XRP’s descent was not a mere slip but rather a dramatic nosedive from its once-towering $3.65 to a humble $1.38. A glorious 60% retreat from its July peak-because, of course, who doesn’t enjoy a good plunge?
Now, don’t let the ‘nuclear’ part frighten you unduly. These aren’t the enormous, intimidating power plants of yesteryear. Think of them as scaled-down versions, compact and, in theory, more manageable. They work on the same principle – splitting atoms, harnessing the energy – but on a smaller scale, requiring less land, fewer resources, and, crucially, potentially powering those data centers that are the engines of our increasingly digital lives. Several companies are tinkering with this idea, but two in particular – NuScale Power Corporation (SMR 6.18%) and Oklo (OKLO 1.16%) – are worth a closer look, even if they are, shall we say, a bit… speculative at this stage.
Now, beta, that’s how much this thing bounces around compared to the whole market. SIL is a bit more rambunctious, IAU is a little more…sedate. And AUM? Assets Under Management. Think of it like how much loot they’re guarding. IAU has a lot of loot. It’s practically Fort Knox in ETF form. And that expense ratio? That’s what they charge you for the privilege of playing the game. It’s like the casino, only slightly less rigged…slightly.
The anticipated launch of Tesla’s Robotaxi service represents a potential catalyst for revenue diversification. Currently undergoing testing with the Model Y fleet, the long-term vision centers on a purpose-built, fully autonomous vehicle, the Cybercab. However, the market appears to be preemptively assigning substantial value to this venture.
Everyone’s pointing to it as the shining example of what happens when you apply artificial intelligence to… well, everything. And the last quarter’s results were… acceptable. Guidance for the future? Reasonably optimistic. So, what’s all the fuss about? Why is the market behaving as if Palantir has suddenly started offering subscriptions to a goblin newsletter?