One observes, with a certain detached amusement, the current enthusiasm for hydrocarbons. The price of crude, having briefly flirted with sanity, has now ascended to levels that induce palpitations amongst motorists and a predictable frenzy amongst investors. ExxonMobil (XOM +0.71%) and Chevron (CVX +0.01%), those titans of the energy sector, are, naturally, benefiting. It is, however, a vulgar error to assume this is a novel development.
The recent surge to approximately $100 a barrel, a figure that once seemed almost quaint, does, of course, inflate their free cash flow. But the truly remarkable aspect is not the price itself – prices, after all, are notoriously fickle – but the fact that these companies have demonstrated a rather stubborn resilience, even when the market was determined to test their mettle. They have, it seems, learned to weather the storms, a quality one rarely encounters in the more fashionable corners of the investment world.
ExxonMobil: A Forty-Three Year Habit
Exxon’s dividend, a quarterly disbursement of $1.03 per share yielding 2.64% at the current price of $156, has been increased annually for forty-three years. A remarkable consistency, one might observe, in an age obsessed with disruption. Their 2025 operating cash flow, a substantial $52 billion, comfortably covered the $17.2 billion dividend payout – a ratio of roughly three to one. Even in the annus horribilis of 2020, when oil prices performed an undignified plummet and Exxon posted a loss of $22 billion, the dividend was maintained. A gesture of defiance, perhaps, or merely prudent financial management. One hesitates to assign motives.
Production, at 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2025 – a forty-year high – is the structural engine. The Permian Basin alone accounts for 1.8 million boed in the final quarter. Furthermore, they have accumulated $15.1 billion in cost savings since 2019, with a target of $20 billion by 2030. A rather dull statistic, perhaps, but one that suggests a degree of fiscal responsibility rarely encountered in the modern boardroom. Their Q4 2025 EPS of $1.71 exceeded expectations, and they repurchased $20 billion in shares, with another $20 billion planned. A display of wealth, certainly, but one that is, at least, directed towards shareholders.
Chevron: A Similar Story, With a Slightly Higher Yield
Chevron’s dividend yield, at 3.6%, is marginally superior to ExxonMobil’s. The quarterly payout rose to $1.78 per share in Q1 2026, extending a streak of thirty-nine consecutive annual increases. Their 2025 free cash flow reached a record $16.60 billion, and total shareholder returns amounted to $27.10 billion. Worldwide production grew 12% year-over-year to 3,723 MBOED, also a record. One begins to suspect a pattern of competence.
Both stocks have enjoyed a roughly 30% increase year-to-date. Both companies, it must be noted, have maintained dividend growth through multiple oil price downturns, including the aforementioned debacle of 2020. One concludes, with a degree of cynical resignation, that they are, in their own way, rather good at what they do. A quality that, sadly, is becoming increasingly rare.
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2026-03-17 04:52