Pershing Square’s performance, consistently exceeding the broader market – a comfortable 23% annually these past eight years – suggests a certain aptitude for discerning value. Or, perhaps, a fortunate alignment with the prevailing currents of speculation. It’s difficult to say. The market, after all, is rarely a rational actor. It is more akin to a restless sea, responding to whispers and shadows as much as to solid foundations.
They recently hopped over to Nasdaq – a bit of a makeover, trying to look all tech-savvy. Clever. But underneath the shiny new listing, it’s still the same old Walmart. And that, surprisingly, is the point. They’re a Dividend King – 52 years of raising that payout, about to make it 53. Which is… comforting? In a world where everything feels disposable, that’s almost… scandalous. I mean, who expects stability from a mega-corporation?
And the S&P 500, at a comparatively modest 3.4? Well, that’s almost…responsible. Still, the whole thing feels terribly precarious. One can’t help but suspect that when the bubble inevitably bursts, there will be a rather unpleasant scramble for the exits. One prefers a little more…grounded sensibility, if you follow.
Oracle, it was said, had fallen further than the price of coffee in a forgotten village. The stock, once a beacon of stability, now drifted like a lost galleon, down nearly nineteen percent as February approached its end. The source of this disquiet wasn’t merely a downturn in the market, but a haunting fear: that OpenAI, a creature of boundless ambition, might not possess the means to honor its agreements. The debt, too, was a specter, a necessary evil to construct the vast, echoing cathedrals of AI – data centers that demanded an insatiable hunger for power and resources. It was a gamble, a desperate attempt to harness the future, but one that left Oracle vulnerable, exposed to the whims of fate.
While the sensible retreated, one finds a certain amusement in observing Miss Wood – a lady with a penchant for the unconventional – circling the fallen. To buy when others sell is not merely prudence; it is a declaration of independence from the herd, and a rather stylish one at that. These companies, diminished though they are – Figma down 84 percent, Robinhood 35, and Shopify 49 from their peaks – present a most intriguing spectacle. It is in the wreckage, after all, that true value often glints.
Reinhart Partners, a firm known for its discerning eye and a fondness for companies that involve shouting and brightly coloured clothing, clearly believes MSGS has potential. And potential, dear reader, is a slippery thing. It’s like trying to herd cats wearing roller skates. But let’s examine the beast. MSGS, for those unfamiliar with the modern colosseum, owns the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers. Teams that, shall we say, inspire passionate, occasionally bewildered, loyalty. They also dabble in development leagues and, naturally, esports. Because if you can’t win on the ice or the court, you can at least dominate in a virtual realm where the laws of physics are merely suggestions.
But alas, the fever breaks. The demand, naturally, waned. One cannot perpetually inoculate against a phantom, however diligently one attempts. Moderna, a company now adrift on a sea of possibilities, embarked upon cost-cutting measures—a sensible endeavor, though one rarely celebrated in polite society—and began to realign its pipeline. Seasonal vaccines, they proclaimed, and grand ambitions in oncology and rare diseases. A noble pursuit, to be sure, though one fraught with the usual bureaucratic entanglements and the capricious whims of fate.
The current surge, a restless stirring in the markets, is rooted in this HBM, specifically its scarcity. Cisco Systems, a name that once evoked the steady rhythm of networks, reported earnings that shimmered with promise, yet carried the faint scent of future constraint. The cost of memory, they confessed, was a shadow lengthening across their projections. This, naturally, confirmed what the seasoned observers already knew: the market for DRAM, and HBM in particular, had tightened to a point of almost unbearable tension. It was a tightness not born of innovation, but of simple arithmetic: too little supply chasing an insatiable demand.
Based in Taiwan, yet extending its reach across continents, TSMC does not design chips; it manifests them. It is a foundry, a crucible where the ephemeral designs of others – Nvidia (NVDA 0.41%), AMD (AMD 1.51%), Broadcom (AVGO 1.78%), even Apple – take on physical form. These “fabless” companies, reliant on TSMC’s capabilities, are merely architects; TSMC is the builder, the one who translates intention into reality. And in a world increasingly defined by computation, that is a position of immense, often understated, power.
