My uncle, bless his heart, cornered me at Thanksgiving—right after the cranberry sauce incident—to ask about AI stocks. He’d seen something on television, naturally, involving robots and exponential growth, and was convinced we were all about to be very, very rich. I mumbled something about “market corrections” and steered him towards the pecan pie, but the encounter left me thinking. Everyone’s chasing the shiny object, and I’m left wondering if I’ve missed the boat, or if I’m just…smarter about avoiding boats altogether.
Micron and Palantir. They’re the darlings right now, aren’t they? The ones everyone’s Instagramming. Micron, with its memory chips, and Palantir, with its…well, whatever it is Palantir does. Honestly, the descriptions always sound like a spy novel synopsis. Both are up, way up. Palantir, nearly 2000% in three years. That’s the kind of number that makes a perfectly reasonable person consider a second mortgage. Micron’s done almost as well. The market values them at astronomical figures. Which, of course, is precisely why I’m suspicious.
It’s not that I dislike success. It’s just that I’ve learned, usually the hard way, that when everyone’s shouting “buy!”, it’s probably time to discreetly back away. These companies are producing results, sure. But the valuation…it feels like someone took a perfectly good price and then added a zero, just for fun. Micron’s earnings are up because of these high-bandwidth memory chips, and that’s great, but it’s a cycle. Everything is a cycle. It’s like the Beanie Baby craze all over again, only with more silicon. And Palantir? Let’s just say their price-to-sales ratio requires a level of faith I generally reserve for finding a matching pair of socks.
I predict both will eventually settle around a $400 billion market cap, if they’re lucky. It’s not a bad outcome, objectively. But it’s hardly the moonshot my uncle is hoping for. I’ve seen this movie before. The hype builds, the stock soars, and then…gravity.
The One That Might Actually Outsmart Us
Which brings me to Alibaba. Now, Alibaba is…complicated. It’s a Chinese e-commerce giant, which automatically adds a layer of geopolitical anxiety. And their earnings have been…let’s say “realigning” lately. But that’s precisely why I’m interested. Everyone else seems to be running in the other direction. I’m not saying it’s a sure thing. Nothing is ever a sure thing. But it’s trading at a reasonable price, and they’re investing heavily in cloud computing and AI. Their Qwen models, apparently, are quite impressive. I read a white paper. It was mostly jargon, but it sounded good.
They’re also trying to deliver groceries within an hour. Which, frankly, seems excessive. I struggle to locate my keys most mornings. The thought of coordinating a fleet of delivery drivers fills me with a quiet dread. But it shows ambition, I suppose. And it’s a sign they’re willing to spend money to grow.
At 21 times forward earnings, it feels…sensible. It’s not going to make me an instant millionaire, but it feels like a solid, long-term investment. And honestly, after years of chasing the next big thing, I’m starting to appreciate the appeal of “solid.” I suspect it could climb above $400 billion next year. Maybe. Don’t quote me on that. I’m just a guy trying to avoid another Thanksgiving conversation about exponential growth.
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2026-03-14 16:52