Dow, Oil, and the Impending Sense of Doom

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My aunt Carol, who sends me stock tips gleaned from Facebook (bless her), called yesterday, practically breathless. “Oil! It’s going crazy! And the Dow… oh, the Dow!” She’d seen a meme, naturally, depicting a plunging graph with a cartoon bear weeping. It was… affecting. More affecting, frankly, than the actual numbers, which, as of Wednesday’s close, weren’t great. Brent crude, that benchmark they keep mentioning on CNBC, is hovering around $93 a barrel. Twenty dollars more than it was before… all of this. The ‘this’ being the situation in Iran, which, if I’m being honest, I mostly understand through the escalating price of gas and Carol’s increasingly frantic phone calls.

The Dow, poor thing, officially turned negative for the year on March 5th. It’s down about 4.5% since the conflict began, and 1.3% for 2026. Two-thousand and twenty-six. It feels… futuristic, doesn’t it? Like we should be driving flying cars and not worrying about geopolitical instability impacting our 401(k)s. It shed 289 points on Wednesday. Which, I’m told, is significant. I tried to explain it to my dog, Winston, but he was more interested in a rogue dust bunny. A perfectly reasonable prioritization, really.

The Dow, you see, is this ancient thing. Dates back to 1896. Thirty of the biggest U.S. companies, apparently. It’s supposed to be a reliable indicator of the health of the entire market. Which feels… optimistic. Like a doctor taking your temperature and declaring you fit for a marathon after you’ve spent the last decade subsisting on takeout and anxiety. Analysts are saying these old, established companies will feel the pinch first, and then it’ll ripple outwards. It’s a domino effect, they say. I mostly picture actual dominoes, falling in slow motion. It’s strangely soothing.

President Trump, naturally, assures us everything is under control. “It’ll be over very soon,” he says. It’s a comforting phrase, even if it feels… disconnected from reality. I’ve noticed a curious discrepancy, though. Trump’s assurances are accompanied by mixed signals from his people. Defense Secretary Hegseth and Secretary of State Rubio seem to have different timelines. It’s like they’re playing a game of geopolitical charades, and the rest of us are just guessing.

Even Peace Might Not Bring Peace of Mind

Even if the conflict does end soon, don’t expect oil prices to magically revert to normal. Analysts are predicting a chaotic transition in Iran, a power vacuum filled by various factions. It’s not a clean break, apparently. More like a messy divorce with a lot of collateral damage. J.P. Morgan, in a recent report (they always have reports), points out that since 1979, there have been eight regime changes in oil-producing nations, each with… implications. Implications being the key word. It’s a pattern, apparently. History repeating itself, only with higher gas prices.

So, even after the bombing stops and the Strait of Hormuz is passable again, the Dow and the S&P 500 might continue to… wobble. Up and down, like a nervous system trying to regain its equilibrium. It’s unsettling. I’ve started practicing deep breathing exercises. Winston seems unimpressed. He just wants a walk. Perhaps he’s onto something. Sometimes, the best investment strategy is simply ignoring the whole thing and focusing on the immediate, furry present.

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2026-03-13 22:54