Everyone’s chasing the hundred-bagger, aren’t they? That one stock that turns a thousand dollars into a down payment on a small island. Tesla, Nvidia… the usual suspects. My Uncle Barry, a man who once tried to corner the market on ceramic gnomes, was convinced he’d found it with Blockbuster. He still brings it up at Thanksgiving. It’s… taxing. So when I see talk of Joby Aviation, this electric air taxi company, promising the same, I immediately reach for the antacids.
The idea, naturally, is appealing. Skip the traffic, soar above the gridlock, arrive at your destination looking vaguely superior. I envision a future where I can bypass the highway entirely, silently gliding over the endless stream of SUVs piloted by people who seem genuinely angry about something. But here’s the thing: I also spent a week trying to assemble a flat-pack bookshelf last month, and I suspect the engineering challenges of vertical takeoff and landing are, shall we say, slightly more complex.
Joby, you see, is currently pre-revenue. Which, in financial terms, is a polite way of saying they haven’t actually sold anything yet. They’re waiting on FAA certification, which, given the FAA’s general pace of innovation, feels like waiting for Godot. And then there’s the infrastructure. They need vertiports. Vertiports! It sounds like something out of a dystopian science fiction novel, doesn’t it? Imagine the zoning meetings. “So you want to put a landing pad for flying taxis… where, exactly?”
Morgan Stanley thinks this urban air mobility market could be worth five trillion dollars by 2050. That’s a lot of money. Enough money, perhaps, to finally justify my collection of vintage thimbles. But five trillion dollars assumes, of course, that people will actually want to ride in these things. I suspect there’s a significant percentage of the population who would rather endure a two-hour commute than be crammed into a small, electrically powered pod with three strangers and a lingering fear of heights.
To grow a hundredfold, Joby needs to become the Uber of the skies. Hundreds of cities. Thousands of aircraft. A seamless, reliable, and affordable transportation network. It’s a nice thought. But I keep picturing the maintenance schedule. The software glitches. The inevitable lawsuits. And then there’s the weather. What happens when it rains? Do the air taxis just… stay grounded? Does everyone have to take the subway?
Look, I’m not saying Joby is a terrible investment. It might even be a decent one. But the idea of turning a thousand dollars into a hundred thousand? That feels… optimistic. I’ve learned, over the years, that most get-rich-quick schemes involve a healthy dose of delusion and a significant amount of risk. I prefer a more modest approach. A diversified portfolio. A comfortable savings account. And maybe, just maybe, a small investment in ceramic gnomes. You never know.
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2026-03-13 09:52