
If you wander into the marketplace of metrics, you will find one called the Shiller P/E-crafted by a chap with a Nobel prize and probably far too much free time-used to smooth out the cyclic chaos of corporate earnings, much like a philosopher smoothing his philosopher’s beard after a long day pondering the nature of business cycles. It divides the current value of the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.03%) by the inflation-adjusted earnings over the last decade-a period which, if recorded as a novel, would be titled “The Long, Long Tale of Excess and Hangovers.” The long-term average hovers around 17, but currently, the ratio is straining at roughly 40-like a over-fed bat trying to squeeze through a tiny hole. Historically, whenever this ratio has lingered above 30 for extended periods, the market has experienced a downturn of at least 20%. The only time it reached beyond 40 was during the dot-com bubble-a period where everyone thought the internet was an infinite jug of moonshine that would keep fueling the party forever.