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IBKR, in its customary fashion, has released its monthly report, a document as predictable as a sunrise and, one suspects, almost as illuminating. February’s figures reveal a Daily Average Revenue Trade count of 4.37 million, a 21% increase year-over-year. A pleasing number, certainly, though tempered by a slight sequential decline. One is reminded that even the most carefully constructed edifice is vulnerable to the erosive forces of time – or, in this case, a single month.

The S&P 500 barely stirred, inching up a fraction. The Nasdaq, a touch more lively, gained 0.36%. These numbers, they mean little to the man who calculates whether he can afford the ticket, or the woman who fears a delayed connection. Delta and United, fellow travelers in this industry, fared no better, their shares also descending. It’s a collective sigh, a recognition that the air is becoming more expensive, the journey less certain.

Both, it turns out, are about big, shiny growth stocks. The kind of companies that, if they do well, might mean I can finally afford that small cottage in Cornwall. Or, you know, just not have to eat ramen for the rest of my life. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1) and MGK (Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF) both promise access to these titans. But which one? It’s a question that’s kept me up at night, alternating between optimistic projections and visions of financial ruin.

It was, of course, the affairs in the East which cast the longest shadow. Those engaged in the pursuit of energy – notably Exxon Mobil – experienced a considerable increase in fortune, their shares rallying with an enthusiasm that bordered on imprudence, as crude oil approached the eighty dollar mark. One could not help but observe a certain…expectation of profit amongst those connected to such ventures. Palantir Technologies, and others of a similar inclination, also benefited from the prevailing anxieties.

The volume was 178.1 million shares. 178.1 million. That’s… a number. It’s 93% above their three-month average. So, people are trading. They went public in 2020. 2020! Remember 2020? A simpler time. They’re up 73% since then. 73%! It’s just… unsustainable. It has to come down at some point. It always does. And then who’s left holding the bag? Not me. I’m diversified. Mostly in complaining.

Trading volume reached 72.1 million shares, which is roughly equivalent to the entire annual output of goblin-forged accounting ledgers.² Palantir IPO’d in 2020, and has, shall we say, grown since then – a 1,428% increase. One can only assume they’ve discovered a particularly effective method of multiplying shares. Or possibly, a very persuasive accountant.

The unrest in the Middle East, a region perpetually poised on the brink of some undisclosed reckoning, invariably introduces a degree of uncertainty into the pricing of crude oil. This uncertainty, while not necessarily indicative of a fundamental shift in supply and demand, does trigger a reflexive adjustment in the valuations of entities engaged in the extraction and refinement of said commodity. ExxonMobil, being one such entity, benefited – or, more accurately, was subjected to the consequences of – this particular market reaction. The logic, if one can apply such a term to the machinations of the financial world, dictates that heightened geopolitical risk necessitates a premium on oil, thereby improving the key performance indicators of those who profit from its scarcity.

The reports spoke of $225.2 million in revenue, a 17.6% increase, a number that, when viewed in isolation, resembled a small victory. But Ricardo, who had seen such numbers bloom and wither countless times, knew better. It was a fleeting bloom, dependent on the fickle weather of investor sentiment. The analysts, those meticulous scribes of expectation, had anticipated $217.4 million, so the company had, technically, exceeded their predictions. A small victory, indeed, like finding a single, perfect mango in a basket of bruised fruit.

The year had begun brightly enough. AMD’s shares, buoyed by a surge of optimism, had soared, leaving Nvidia trailing in its wake. It was a reversal of fortunes, a momentary defiance of the established order. But as the months wore on, a disquiet settled upon the investors, a subtle unease that mirrored the growing anxieties surrounding the relentless pursuit of artificial intelligence. While Nvidia, the established power, merely dipped, AMD, the ambitious challenger, began to falter, its decline steeper, more pronounced. It wasn’t merely a correction, some reasoned; it was a premonition.