One gathers Nio, that purveyor of electric vehicles from China, recently presented its quarterly earnings. Rather good, actually. Revenue surged, a most respectable 79% year over year to 34.7 billion yuan – or, for those of us who prefer not to wrestle with currencies, approximately $5 billion. And, astonishingly, a profit. A mere 282.7 million yuan, naturally, but a profit nonetheless. One does believe it’s their first. A charming little accomplishment, wouldn’t you agree?
The full year reveals a revenue increase of 33% to 87.49 billion yuan, and deliveries up 47% to 326,028 units. Vehicle margin expanded, and the net loss narrowed – from a positively alarming 22.4 billion yuan to a slightly less alarming 14.9 billion yuan. One suspects the accountants are taking a well-deserved holiday.
And yet, the stock price remains stubbornly below its 2018 IPO price of $6.28. Less than one times this year’s sales, if one has bothered to calculate it. The market, it seems, is being frightfully obtuse. Could acquiring a stake in Nio today, while the financial analysts are looking elsewhere, prove to be a rather advantageous move? One dares to suggest it might.
The Pace of Progress
Nio offers a range of electric vehicles, from rather elegant sedans and SUVs to more… accessible models under the Onvo and Firefly brands. They’ve also introduced this curious business of swappable batteries – a distinctly clever notion, if one isn’t overly fond of waiting for a charge. Expansion beyond China is underway, slowly but surely, across Europe. One trusts they’ve packed sufficient umbrellas.
Deliveries doubled in 2020 and 2021, a most impressive burst of activity. However, 2022 and 2023 saw more modest gains – 34% and 31% respectively. Vehicle margins also dipped. The company attributes this to ‘macro and competitive headwinds’ – a polite way of saying the world is a tiresome place. Still, 2024 and 2025 are projecting a rather encouraging resurgence, driven by the popularity of their flagship sedans and the more affordable Onvo SUVs. One observes a distinct upturn.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | 72,689 | 42,094 | 72,056 | 87,071 | 124,807 |
| Growth (YOY) | 45.2% | 40.1% | 25.6% | 40.8% | 71.7% |
| Vehicle Margin | 13.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 18.1% |
A Potential Bonanza?
Analysts predict revenue growth of 29% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits appearing in 2026 and 2027. However, the current valuation is being suppressed by tiresome concerns about trade wars, tariffs, geopolitical squabbles, and the general unpleasantness of the world. Should these headwinds abate – and one does hope they will, for all our sakes – Nio could be revalued as a proper growth stock. And, of course, generate rather substantial gains for those of us with the fortitude to endure a little short-term volatility. One rather thinks it might. A calculated risk, naturally. One wouldn’t dream of encouraging recklessness.
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2026-03-11 21:12