Pharmaceuticals & The Implausibility of Value

The current obsession with GLP-1 drugs – those miraculous compounds that appear to convince the human body it has, in fact, already eaten – is, frankly, a bit unsettling. It’s not the science, you understand (the science is… science), it’s the sheer, unblinking faith Wall Street has placed in it. This has, predictably, led to some rather peculiar valuations. Specifically, it’s propelled Eli Lilly (LLY +0.70%) to heights that suggest either imminent discovery of the meaning of life, or a collective delusion. One of the two. (It’s probably the delusion. The universe rarely offers straightforward answers, preferring instead to hide them behind layers of bureaucracy and improbable coincidences.)

The Perils of Perfection

Eli Lilly, to its credit, was quick off the mark with Mounjaro and Zepbound, which have proven remarkably effective at… well, reducing appetite. They now account for a rather alarming 56% of the company’s revenue. Which is, statistically speaking, a lot. (Imagine building an entire financial empire on the premise that people want to eat less. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.) The market, however, seems to believe this is not merely a temporary trend, but a permanent reshaping of the human condition. Hence the rather enthusiastic price-to-earnings ratio of 44 and a dividend yield that wouldn’t trouble a particularly frugal ant. It’s priced for perfection, which, as any seasoned trader knows, is a dangerous place to be. (Perfection, much like a perfectly brewed cup of tea, is an elusive and ultimately unattainable goal. Striving for it only leads to disappointment and lukewarm beverages.)

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Merck: A Different Kind of Implausibility

Merck (MRK 0.17%), on the other hand, is taking a more… pragmatic approach. They’re focusing on cancer, infections, and cardiometabolic disease. Less glamorous, perhaps, than helping people resist the siren call of the biscuit tin, but undeniably important. (One could argue that treating the consequences of overindulgence is a more sustainable business model, but that would require a level of long-term thinking rarely seen on Wall Street.) They also have a pipeline of new drugs, and, crucially, some international patents for Keytruda that extend into the early 2030s. And a new delivery method that might stretch that even further. (Patent law is a fascinating labyrinth of legal loopholes and strategic maneuvers. It’s like a game of chess played with lawyers and billions of dollars.)

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But the real reason to consider Merck isn’t just the science, or the patents, or even the potential for future growth. It’s the valuation. A P/E ratio of 16 is, frankly, almost reasonable. And a dividend yield of 2.8%? That’s enough to buy a decent cup of coffee, and perhaps even a small biscuit. (A biscuit, of course, being the ultimate test of any investment strategy.) They’ve also been steadily increasing their dividend for over three decades, which suggests a certain degree of fiscal responsibility. (A rare trait in the pharmaceutical industry, where fortunes are often built on hype and hope.)

It’s Not That Lilly Is Bad…

Eli Lilly isn’t a bad company. It’s just… expensive. It’s like buying a vintage spaceship: undeniably cool, but you’ll probably spend more on maintenance than you will on actually traveling to other planets. If you’re looking for a pharmaceutical giant that pays a dividend, and doesn’t require you to remortgage your house, Merck might be a more sensible choice. (Sensible, of course, being a relative term. In a world governed by chaos and probability, there’s very little that makes actual sense.)

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2026-03-08 20:32