Bitcoin in ’36: A Reasonable Speculation

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Bitcoin, as of this moment – which, let’s be clear, is always ‘this moment’ until it isn’t – is experiencing a period of… shall we say, re-evaluation. The price, having briefly flirted with altitudes previously only dreamed of by alchemists and venture capitalists1, has taken a tumble. A significant tumble. But to focus solely on the price is to mistake the map for the territory, and the territory, in this case, is a rather peculiar digital landscape.

The question, then, isn’t “Where will Bitcoin be?” but rather, “What is Bitcoin, and what might it become in the next decade?” The year 2036. Sounds terribly futuristic, doesn’t it? As if it requires a special permit to exist.

A Foundation of Fundamentals (and a bit of Magic)

First, let’s dispense with the notion of ‘value’. Value, you see, is a construct. A shared delusion. Gold, for example, is shiny and relatively inert. Useful for dentists and magpies, but its ‘value’ is entirely based on centuries of tradition and a remarkable capacity for humans to agree on things that aren’t entirely logical. Bitcoin, however, is… different. It’s an idea, manifested in code, secured by cryptography, and powered by an increasingly frantic amount of electricity.2

The regulatory environment, that often-impenetrable thicket of rules and paperwork, is slowly, grudgingly, beginning to acknowledge Bitcoin’s existence. The establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve – a move viewed with suspicion by traditional finance, naturally – is a sign. And there are whispers of key government officials, those who understand that ignoring disruptive technologies is akin to ignoring a particularly persistent dragon, beginning to take notice.

Over the next decade, expect this trend to continue. One can even envision a scenario – a perfectly reasonable scenario, mind you – where nations begin to cautiously acquire Bitcoin, viewing it not as a speculative asset, but as a… well, a digital hedge against the inevitable eccentricities of fiat currency. Perhaps even a form of fiscal alchemy.3 And favorable tax treatment? A distinct possibility. Though convincing tax authorities that something existing only in cyberspace deserves preferential treatment is a challenge worthy of a quest.

The integration of Bitcoin into the traditional financial services industry is already underway. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs – those curious instruments that allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without actually owning it – is a clear indication. And innovative credit products, those clever contraptions designed to extract maximum profit from minimal risk, are beginning to emerge. Expect more of this. Companies, you see, are remarkably adept at finding new ways to monetize anything, even things that don’t entirely make sense.

Since its genesis block was mined in 2009, the Bitcoin network has remained remarkably secure. Never hacked, despite the best efforts of countless digital brigands and shadowy organizations. This is a testament to its robust architecture and the relentless dedication of its developers. And the ever-increasing hash rate? A comforting sign that the network is becoming ever more resistant to attack. Though one must always be wary of computational brute force. It’s a bit like building a fortress out of numbers.

Quantum computing, of course, poses a potential threat. But the timeline for its widespread availability remains uncertain. And Bitcoin, being the adaptable creature that it is, is already exploring potential defenses. Proposals have been put forward to protect against quantum attacks. It’s a bit like preparing for a siege with spells and algorithms.

Looking ahead to 2036, Bitcoin should be stronger from a fundamental perspective. And this, in turn, lays the foundation for potential price appreciation. Though ‘price appreciation’ is a rather vulgar term, don’t you think? It implies a simple desire for profit. Surely, there’s more to it than that.

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Predicting the Future: A Fool’s Errand, But Let’s Try Anyway

I’ve previously suggested that Bitcoin’s market capitalization could reach half that of gold within the next decade. A bold claim, perhaps. But consider this: gold’s current market cap is approximately $35.4 trillion. To reach half that value, Bitcoin would need to increase its market cap by a factor of approximately 13. A significant undertaking, to be sure. But not entirely implausible.

Gold’s primary advantage, of course, is its longevity. It’s been around for millennia, accumulating cultural significance and a certain degree of trust. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a relative newcomer. But it possesses advantages that gold simply cannot match. It’s purely digital, not subject to physical limitations. It’s not controlled by any single entity. It has a hard supply cap. It’s easily transportable. And it can be used in transactions without intermediaries. These attributes, I believe, will allow Bitcoin to gradually chip away at gold’s dominance.

A price of $900,000 in 2036? It’s a speculative number, of course. But it’s not entirely unreasonable. It assumes that Bitcoin will continue to gain adoption, that the regulatory environment will become more favorable, and that the network will remain secure. And it assumes that people will continue to believe in the power of decentralized finance. Which, let’s be honest, is a rather optimistic assumption.

1

The Guild of Alchemists and Venture Capitalists, you see, are notoriously fickle. One minute they’re funding the construction of flying machines, the next they’re investing in the breeding of glow-in-the-dark snails.

2

This electricity, of course, is often generated by burning fossil fuels. A rather ironic situation, considering Bitcoin’s purported environmental benefits.

3

Fiscal alchemy, you see, involves turning digital bits into tangible wealth. A complex process, requiring a deep understanding of cryptography, economics, and a healthy dose of delusion.

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2026-03-08 15:34