It has come to our attention – and really, whose attention hasn’t it come to, given the sheer volume of press releases – that Alphabet (GOOG 0.87%)(GOOGL 0.75%), the entity responsible for a rather large proportion of the world’s digital distractions, is also dabbling in the surprisingly congested business of putting things into orbit. Most people associate them with search engines, video sharing, and increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligences (which, let’s be honest, mostly seem to excel at composing strongly worded emails). But they also have a venture capital arm, a sort of galactic-scale angel investor, flinging money at companies that promise to do… things. Often involving technology. And occasionally, space.
Their current portfolio, a list which reads like a particularly ambitious science fiction short story collection, includes 29 companies. And topping that list, at least in terms of sheer financial commitment, is AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 4.67%). Alphabet currently holds 8.9 million shares, representing a monetary outlay of approximately $903 million (give or take a few decimal places, and accounting for the inherent instability of all earthly currencies). This is, naturally, not a sum to be sneezed at. Or, indeed, launched into space (though one assumes they’ve considered it). Let’s delve into the particulars, shall we?
An Early Bet on Reaching For The Sky
AST SpaceMobile isn’t building rockets, per se (though one imagines they’ve looked into that, too). They’re attempting to construct a global cellular network… in orbit. The idea is to provide direct-to-device connectivity for standard mobile phones, bypassing the need for terrestrial cell towers in remote areas (or, you know, anywhere with a particularly stubborn hill). It’s a concept so audacious, so inherently improbable, that it’s almost… sensible. (Almost.)
Alphabet first dipped its toes into the AST SpaceMobile pool via convertible notes back in early 2024. These notes, along with investments from AT&T and Vodafone, were essentially IOUs, redeemable for stock at a predetermined price ($5.75 per share). It’s a bit like betting on a horse before the race, except the race is happening 400 kilometers above your head and the horse is a satellite. And possibly made of aluminum.
The agreement included a clause stating that if the stock price soared to 130% above the conversion price for a sustained period (30 days, to be precise), AST SpaceMobile could force the conversion. Which, rather predictably, it did. This resulted in Alphabet receiving approximately 26 million shares, of which the current 8.9 million represent their continued holding. It’s a bit like a particularly complex game of cosmic musical chairs.
They’ve also managed to secure a rather impressive roster of commercial and government contracts, including deals with 50 mobile operators serving a combined 3 billion subscribers. And, crucially, they’ve landed contracts with the U.S. government, including a $43 million deal with the Space Development Agency and a $20 million contract through a prime contractor. It appears someone in Washington thinks talking on your phone from the middle of the ocean is a good idea. (Which, logically, it is.)
What Does 2026 Hold? (Besides More Satellites)
AST SpaceMobile has proven adept at securing contracts. The next step, naturally, is to actually deploy a functioning constellation of satellites. The goal is to achieve continuous coverage across key markets – the U.S., Europe, and Japan – by the end of the year. This requires, shall we say, a significant number of satellites. Somewhere between 45 and 60, to be precise.
So far, they’ve launched six BlueBird satellites. Five are relatively modest in size, sporting a 693 square-foot communications array. The sixth, launched at the end of last year, is a next-generation model with a whopping 2,400 square-foot array – currently the largest communications satellite array in low Earth orbit. A seventh satellite is currently awaiting launch aboard Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle (scheduled for this month, assuming the laws of physics remain cooperative).
Long-term, the ambition is to build a constellation of 90 to 100 satellites. This, however, is where things get… expensive. Each BlueBird satellite costs somewhere between $21 million and $23 million. (That’s a lot of phone calls.) Fortunately, AST SpaceMobile has amassed a rather substantial war chest – nearly $2.8 billion in cash and equivalents as of last year. They’ve also raised another $1 billion through convertible notes and have $80 million remaining under an existing equity facility.
Is AST SpaceMobile a Buy? (Or Just a Really Complicated Gamble?)
Analysts predict that AST SpaceMobile will generate $178 million in revenue this year, climbing to $805 million in 2027 and $2 billion by 2028. They also anticipate a full-year profit by 2028. The company claims to be fully funded to manufacture and launch a constellation of 100 satellites, enough to provide continuous cell service globally. This is, undeniably, a good sign.
However, the stock isn’t cheap. It currently trades at 155 times this year’s projected sales and around 81 times its projected 2028 earnings. Therefore, AST SpaceMobile is best suited for aggressive investors who are willing to stomach the inevitable volatility. It’s a high-risk, high-reward proposition. A bit like launching a satellite. (Though, admittedly, with slightly fewer explosions.)
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2026-03-08 02:15