So, Joby Aviation (JOBY 0.47%). They’ve had a bit of a wobble, haven’t they? Down almost 25% this year. Honestly, it’s almost… refreshing. Everyone was getting so carried away with the flying car fantasy. And now? Now they’re trading lower than they were five years ago. Five years! It’s like they spent all that time… spinning their wheels. Or, well, rotors.
Naturally, the hopeful types are sniffing around, wondering if this is a ‘buying opportunity.’ Oh, the optimism. It’s almost… endearing. But let’s be real. At a $9.6 billion market cap, are we seriously considering this? I mean, I’ve lost more than that on bad decisions involving vintage champagne and questionable dating apps, but at least those were entertaining.
What They Do (Or, Attempt To)
They make electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. eVTOLs. Sounds… futuristic, doesn’t it? Basically, it’s a glorified drone that might carry people. Unlike helicopters – which, let’s face it, actually work – these things run on batteries. Lots and lots of batteries. It’s like they’re trying to solve the problem of air travel with the technology from my nephew’s Christmas present.
The S-4, their flagship, has six rotors. Six! It’s a bit much, isn’t it? Like they’re overcompensating. They claim it can carry four passengers, four carry-ons, and a pilot for 150 miles at 200 mph. Sounds impressive, until you factor in the weight of all those batteries, the potential for mid-air mechanical failures, and the sheer terror of being suspended hundreds of feet in the air by something powered by what is essentially a giant iPhone charger. The FAA is still ‘evaluating’ it, which is corporate-speak for ‘we have absolutely no idea if this thing is safe.’ But hey, they’re manufacturing two a month. Progress! Or, at least, a commitment to losing money at scale.
A (Relative) Bargain? Don’t Be Fooled
The share price is down over 50% from its 2025 highs. Which, naturally, makes people think it’s a steal. It’s the same logic that leads people to buy deeply discounted cashmere sweaters. You think you’re getting a bargain, until you wash it and it shrinks to the size of a tea cozy. At its peak, Joby was valued at $17.5 billion. That’s roughly the same as Southwest Airlines. Southwest, as in, a company that actually, you know, flies planes and transports people. It’s a bit like valuing a drawing of a car the same as an actual Ferrari.
Even now, it’s more valuable than American Airlines, a medical helicopter service, and Lyft. Lyft! Let that sink in. A company that’s trying to build a flying taxi service is valued higher than a company that already solves the problem of getting people from A to B on the ground. They’ve even bought Uber’s air delivery division. Which, frankly, feels like Uber saying, ‘Here, you deal with that headache.’ It’s like they’re building a luxury problem on top of another luxury problem.
Look, we won’t know if Joby is a long-term success or a spectacular failure for years. They need FAA certification, they need to ramp up production, and they need to launch this thing in dozens of cities. And even if they do all that, the market for air taxis is likely to be a fraction of the size of the market for, well, actual travel. I’m not saying it’s impossible. I’m just saying that betting on it feels… reckless. The stock is going to be volatile. It’s a high-risk gamble. And frankly, I’d rather spend my money on something with a slightly higher probability of success. Like, say, a really good bottle of champagne. At least that will reliably improve my mood.
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2026-03-08 00:32