$2.6B Crypto Options Expire Today: Are Traders Betting on a Crash?

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Over $2.6 Billion Options Expire Today — and Traders Are Betting Against the Rally

Over $2.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are expiring today. While crypto prices have recovered somewhat this week, data suggests investors are still being careful.

Traders are watching whether BTC and ETH will hold their respective grounds through the settlement.

Options Data Flags Bearish Tilt

As a researcher tracking the market, I’m observing that Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,731, thankfully staying just above that key $70,000 mark. Ethereum, meanwhile, is holding steady near $2,070.

Today, most of the expiring cryptocurrency contracts are for Bitcoin, totaling around $2.23 billion across over 31,700 contracts.

The put-to-call ratio is currently 1.70, indicating that significantly more investors are buying put options – bets that the price of an asset will decrease – than call options, which are bets for price increases.

Currently, the price point that would cause the most losses for Bitcoin options holders is around $69,000 – about $1,700 below its current price. This ‘max pain’ level represents the price where the largest number of options contracts would expire with no value.

The strike price often acts like a magnet for the price as options contracts get closer to their expiration date. Specifically, on Deribit, around 8:00 UTC, the price tends to move towards the ‘max pain’ level – the strike price that would cause the most losses for option holders.

Although smaller than Bitcoin’s, Ethereum also has a notable amount of expiring contracts, totaling $398 million across 192,403 open contracts.

Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio is currently at 0.90, suggesting a more neutral market sentiment. The price level where most options contracts would cause the greatest pain for option holders is around $1,950, which is approximately $120 below the current price.

Selling Pressure on Calls Despite Price Gains

This week, Greeks.live, a platform that analyzes options data, observed a significant difference between how the price of an asset moved and what traders were predicting through options contracts.

The cryptocurrency market recovered this week, and Bitcoin has stayed comfortably above $70,000, now aiming to reach $75,000. However, recent trading shows more people are selling options to profit from potential price drops than buying options expecting further increases. While prices are still going up, the rate of increase has slowed down.

Selling call options usually means traders don’t expect a big price increase for the underlying asset. By selling calls, these traders earn a premium and are essentially betting the price won’t go up much further. This strategy often indicates a lack of strong belief that the price will continue to rise.

Today’s options contracts are expiring, representing about 7% of all outstanding contracts. According to Greeks.live, this is close to the lowest amount we’ve seen in a while.

Recently, Bitcoin has dominated the derivatives market, with its share of total open interest hitting a high point. This shows just how much influence Bitcoin currently has in this market.

Volatility Climbing as Sentiment Recovers Unevenly

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen an increase in implied volatility this week as prices have recovered. Bitcoin’s volatility is currently at 55%, and Ethereum’s is at 75%, suggesting traders anticipate larger price fluctuations in the near future.

When options become more expensive during a price increase, it often means buyers are spending extra to protect themselves from a possible price drop, rather than simply trying to profit from the upward trend.

The balance between demand for put and call options is becoming more positive for both assets, suggesting a slight improvement in how investors feel about the market.

However, Greeks.live cautioned that the broader picture remains bearish.

Analysts at Greeks.live say the market is still declining, and now isn’t a good time to buy expecting prices to quickly go up. They believe the market hasn’t hit its lowest point yet.

This analysis agrees with the current market data showing a lot more bets are being placed that Bitcoin’s price will go down (puts) than bets that it will go up (calls). Currently, there are almost 20,000 put contracts open, compared to less than 12,000 call contracts.

If Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are near their lowest profitable points when options contracts expire today, we might see a quick increase in price swings. Otherwise, the expiry could happen without much market disruption.

When there’s a big difference between the current price and the price that would cause the most losses for options traders, we often see larger price swings after the options contract expires as traders adjust their positions.

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2026-03-06 09:26